Polymarket probability of WTI crude oil breaking $95/barrel in July drops to 53%, down 16% in 24 hours

Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket event “WTI Crude Oil Price in July,” the probability of WTI crude oil breaking $95/barrel has fallen to 53%, down 16% in 24 hours; the probability of breaking $100/barrel has fallen to 27%, down 13% in 24 hours.

According to market sources, due to the worsening disruption of energy shipments in the Red Sea and concerns over a further escalation of the war with Iran, oil prices are still on track for a significant weekly gain, currently maintaining a 10% weekly increase. “The ongoing US attacks on Iran, further Houthi involvement in the Red Sea, and the disruption of the CPC pipeline have once again squeezed crude oil supply, making price increases inevitable,” said analyst Janiv Shah, adding that the current level of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz appears to be nearing its peak levels from March.

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