分析：比特币盈利供应占比逼近60%，但牛市确认仍为时尚早

Odaily News The overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still too early to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there remains a risk of another pullback.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the Supply in Profit for Bitcoin has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply currently priced above its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30 and is now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires sustained verification. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires the satisfaction of two conditions simultaneously:

First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain consistently above 1 and not fall below this level for several weeks.

Second, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit must stably exceed 64%.

Analysts note that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly climbed to 67%. However, the market subsequently retreated again. Currently, the 30-day SMA for long-term holders has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, serving as a significant risk signal for gauging the strength of the market recovery.

Although the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding the behavior of long-term holders and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound will truly transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)