Bitcoin selling pressure is easing? Realized losses have dropped 56% from peak, but demand recovery remains insufficient

Odaily Odaily reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin has seen the largest scale of realized losses among holders in history. In February 2026, the 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion, 19% higher than the cycle high of $1.15 billion in 2022. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin's realized losses have decreased by 56.5%, currently falling to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that selling pressure driven by losses has clearly eased, but the market has yet to see sustained demand recovery, with the decline in losses still outpacing the increase in profits.

From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, hitting an all-time high for this metric. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin's realized profit 30DMA stood at $257 million, a decline of 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is 77.7% lower than the level when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710 on October 6, 2025. This metric hit a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since rebounded by 34.7%.

Axel Adler stated that profit-driven selling pressure has significantly decreased, and the volume of coins being sold for profit is currently at a relatively low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean selling pressure is entirely exhausted or that market demand has recovered. If realized profits consistently rise to above $400-500 million, it would provide stronger confirmation of a sustained market improvement.

Additionally, Bitcoin's Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has recovered from its June low of 0.26 to 0.43, but it remains below the 1.0 level. Analysts point out that although the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler cautioned that if the Profit/Loss Ratio falls back below 0.26, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 recorded on June 30, it could indicate further intensification of market pressure.