Polymarket odds for a "two-week ceasefire" between the US and Iran by August 31 currently stand at 51%, down 3% over the week

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire," the probability for August 14 is currently at 34%, down 1% over the week; the probability for August 31 is currently at 51%, down 3% over the week.

According to the settlement rules, if, at any point between the market creation and the specified deadline (23:59 ET), there begins a consecutive 14-day period during which the US does not conduct qualifying military actions against Iran, the market will settle as "Yes." Qualifying military actions refer to airstrikes or ground-to-ground missile attacks initiated by the US and directly striking targets within Iranian territory.

Reportedly, the US military has conducted strikes against Iranian military targets for a 13th consecutive night, and Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by Trump, with both sides showing no signs of de-escalation in the near term. However, according to sources familiar with the matter, Trump is growing increasingly frustrated by the prolonged war. His advisors worry that the war has driven up prices, hurt approval ratings, and resulted in the deaths of over a dozen US soldiers, continuously draining the political capital of the Trump administration and potentially impacting the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.

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