“Fed Whisperer”: July FOMC meeting is the most unpredictable in recent years

Odaily Odaily reports that "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said on July 23 local time that the Fed's July policy meeting will be the most difficult to predict in recent years. The resurgence of oil prices, rising risks from US tariff policies, and some officials shifting towards supporting a rate hike have challenged the consensus to keep rates unchanged.

The market broadly expects the Fed to maintain the policy rate unchanged at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28-29, keeping the current interest rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the outcome of the meeting does not mean the internal debate is over. Some officials have already begun laying the groundwork for further rate hikes this year.

At the previous meeting, there was a clear divergence among the 18 Fed officials on whether a rate hike was needed this year, with half expecting a hike and the other half seeing no need for adjustment. Jonathan Pingle, Chief US Economist at UBS, indicated that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh could be a key figure in determining the direction of policy.