分析：比特币跌破200周均线或构成历史级买点，中位回报超100%

Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo pointed out that Bitcoin has briefly fallen below the 200-week moving average twice in the past two weeks, but quickly rebounded and reclaimed that level each time. BTC is currently trading at around $63,900, slightly above the 200-week moving average of approximately $62,358. Analysis suggests that when Bitcoin breaks below its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA), it has historically often presented significant long-term buying opportunities, with past data showing a median return of over 100% in this range.

Perfumo noted that since 2017, daily closes below this moving average have occurred only about 10% of the time, but these moments typically correspond to "unusually attractive" long-term entry points. Buying BTC around this level has yielded a median return of approximately 113% over the following year and 313% over two years. Additionally, investors generally do not have to endure prolonged unrealized losses, with a median time to break even of just about 2 days, and a subsequent median maximum drawdown of around 9% over the following year.

However, Perfumo also emphasized that past performance does not guarantee future results, but historical data indicates that Bitcoin tends to offer strong long-term value within this price range. (CoinDesk)