Polymarket: "Israel to close airspace before June 30" probability rises to 64%, up 52% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer 先知频道 monitoring shows that the probability of "Israel will close its airspace before June 30" on Polymarket has risen to 64%, a 52% increase in 24 hours; additionally, the probability of "Israel will close its airspace before June 15" has risen to 59%, also a 52% increase in 24 hours.

Closing airspace refers to the closure of all Israeli civilian airspace, or a closure covering a significant portion of Israeli civilian airspace, resulting in flight cancellations or a full suspension of commercial aviation, including commercial flights transiting, arriving at, or departing from that airspace. To qualify, the closure must apply to flights across the entirety of Israel, or to a qualifying substantial portion of Israeli airspace. Flight cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops on a limited scale, or individual regional closures do not meet the criteria for being settled as "Yes."

If there are minor exceptions within the context of a large-scale closure, such as allowing some pre-approved flights to pass, this will not affect the closure being deemed valid. Warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions issued by airlines or countries other than Israel cannot serve as sufficient grounds for a "Yes" settlement.

Following the ceasefire on April 8 between the US, Israel, and Iran, Iran has once again fired missiles at Israel after a two-month gap. Trump stated that his advice to Iran is that, since the missiles have been fired, they should now return to the negotiating table and reach an agreement. Trump also said he will call Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to tell him not to retaliate.

Odaily Seer 先知频道 continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.