Wintermute: The Recent Bitcoin Rally is Clearly Leverage-Driven, with Open Interest Surging While Spot Trading Volume Remains Low

Odaily reports that Wintermute's weekly market report indicates that Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and briefly touched around $83,000, simultaneously reclaiming its 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally appears to be significantly more driven by leveraged capital than by spot buying.

The report points out that over the past month, Bitcoin open interest increased by approximately $10 billion, while spot trading volume fell to a two-year low, a classic short squeeze scenario. Despite ETFs recording net inflows of $623 million and BTC reserves on exchanges hitting a 7-year low, the current RSI has entered overbought territory. If spot capital fails to take over after the squeeze concludes, BTC prices could face a risk of rapid correction.

Wintermute further stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the resonance of strong U.S. equities and leverage, rather than an independent bull market logic. Subsequent U.S. CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will become key factors to watch for whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000.