Polymarket probability of "Powell leaving the Federal Reserve Board before May 30" drops to 9%, down 25% in 24 hours

The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Powell stepping down as Federal Reserve Board member before May 30" has plummeted to 9%, a 24-hour drop of 25%; the probability for "Powell stepping down as Federal Reserve Board member before December 31" has fallen to 66%, a 24-hour drop of 11%.

The event contract rules state that if Fed Chair Powell is no longer a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at any time before the target date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "No." If Powell ceases to be Fed Chair but remains a member of the Board of Governors, it does not meet the "Yes" condition. The judgment is based on information released by the U.S. government, but a consensus of credible reports may also serve as a basis.

Powell stated at this morning's press conference that he would continue to serve as a Fed Governor for a "period of time" after stepping down as Chair and promised to "keep a low profile." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent responded, saying, "It would be highly unusual for Powell to remain a Fed Governor. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision goes against tradition."

The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing the changes before prices are set.