Polymarket "Probability of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran before April 30" is only 4%, down 7% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket "permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran before April 30" probability is only 4%, down 7% in 24 hours. To date, the total trading volume for the "permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran before the specified date" event contract has exceeded $54 million.

The rules for this event contract are: If Iran and the United States reach a permanent peace agreement before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will be resolved to "Yes"; otherwise, it will be resolved to "No." A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses similar wording to explicitly indicate that military hostilities between the United States and Iran will permanently end. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or do not include a final agreement to permanently end military hostilities between the United States and Iran (for example, a temporary extension of a two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, 2026) do not qualify. The primary source of information for this market is official information from the US and Iranian governments; however, other credible reports may also be considered.

US President Donald Trump previously stated that he would not go to great lengths just to get a worthless agreement from Iran.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market. See the changes before the price is set.