Polymarket puts the probability of "US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 30" at 52%, up 6% in short term

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket data indicates the probability of "US-Iran diplomatic meeting before April 30" is currently 52%, up 6% in the short term.

According to NDTV, sources say the second round of negotiations between Iran and the US is scheduled for April 27.

Per market rules, if representatives of the US and Iran hold a formal diplomatic meeting before 23:59 Eastern Time on April 30, the market will be judged as "Yes." A diplomatic meeting is defined as a formal meeting where representatives of both sides attend in an official capacity with authorization, including indirect face-to-face meetings via mediators, but excluding brief greetings or chance encounters for non-diplomatic purposes. The meeting must be face-to-face and recognized by the government or reported by credible media.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel keeps a close watch on prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.