Analysis: Bitcoin's "Quantum Threat" Manageable, Potential $145 Billion Sell-off Not a Systemic Risk

Odaily reported that discussions regarding quantum computing potentially threatening Bitcoin's security have reignited. Analyst James Check points out that while quantum computing could theoretically crack elliptic curve signatures, its market impact may be overstated.

Data shows approximately 1.7 million BTC (around $145 billion) are stored in early "Satoshi-era" addresses. If private keys were to be cracked, this could create potential selling pressure. However, from a market liquidity perspective, this scale is not unbearable: during a bull market, long-term holders typically sell between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC per day, meaning the above scale is equivalent to 2 to 3 months of routine profit-taking.

Additionally, the average monthly exchange inflow is about 850,000 BTC, and the notional trading volume of the derivatives market could cover this size in just a few days. Historical data shows that in the most recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, far exceeding the potential "quantum risk" scale, yet it did not trigger a systemic collapse.

The analysis suggests that even if a concentrated release occurs, it is more likely to bring about periodic volatility rather than a structural shock. Furthermore, entities capable of accessing such assets are more inclined to adopt batch selling and hedging strategies to mitigate market impact.

Overall, the core issue of the "quantum threat" may not be the selling pressure itself, but rather the governance-level response—for instance, whether to restrict the movement of assets from related addresses through a protocol upgrade. (CoinDesk)