1011 Insider Whale’s Proxy: Market Bets on “Peace Trade,” but Hormuz Risk Remains Unresolved

Odaily Odaily News: Garrett Jin, the proxy for the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that the market is currently pricing in “peace expectations,” driving up risk assets, but this diverges from the supply and demand situation in the energy market.

He pointed out that while the S&P 500 index hit an all-time high, Brent crude oil prices rebounded to around $103. Previously, hedge funds had heavily shorted crude oil, with Goldman Sachs data showing the short-to-long ratio once reaching 7.6:1. The conditions on which the current market rally depends—such as the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and Fed rate cuts—have not yet been achieved, and the gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has risen to its 2021 high.