Analysis: Bitcoin's "Safe Haven Myth" Fails Amid US-Iran Conflict, ETF Funds Reshape Pricing Logic

Odaily 10x Research posted on platform X, stating that in the current context of the US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has not demonstrated its "inflation-resistant" or "safe-haven asset" attributes. Instead, it has fallen in sync with other risk assets, indicating a shift in its price-driving logic. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has introduced a new group of investors to the market, most of whom come from Wall Street and are more focused on macroeconomic variables rather than on-chain applications or network growth metrics. However, not all "macro" indicators are applicable to Bitcoin. Some retail investors still rely on the "four-year cycle" narrative or its extension to a "five-year cycle," leading them to continue taking long positions during the decline. The market currently widely misinterprets Bitcoin, viewing it as a safe-haven asset, over-relying on outdated liquidity models, and neglecting the key macroeconomic factors that truly drive the cycles.