Key points
– Every approximately 210,000 blocks (≈ 4 years) — the block reward is halved, and the new supply drops sharply, further reinforcing the scarcity of Bitcoin.
– Historically, each halving has brought about a significant price increase: +8,200% in 2012, +285% in 2016, +600% in 2020, and ≈+83% one year later in 2024.
– Before and after the halving, on-chain indicators (MVRV, SOPR, computing power, exchange balance) and futures positions often change significantly, reflecting a shift in market sentiment.
– After the halving, the focus of miners’ income shifts from block subsidies to transaction fees, and the profit level depends on the balance between the BTC price and the cost of approximately $50-55 per PH/s.
The Bitcoin halving event, which occurs every four years , will cut the block reward in half, significantly reduce the new BTC release, and further strengthen the theory of the scarcity of digital gold . Therefore, every time the halving occurs, traders and investors will judge the market demand through BTC/USDT spot and BTC/USD perpetual contract positions. At the same time, Bitcoin spot trading volume and futures open contracts will also reflect the position layout of participants in advance. In addition to the trading field, staking and income projects such as XT Earn will also be affected by the halving expectations.
What is Bitcoin Halving?
Every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years), the mining reward for new blocks is halved. This design originates from the protocol itself and is used to control inflation. By reducing the speed of new coins being released, the halving event strengthens the scarcity of Bitcoin as digital gold.
Historical halving dates and reward changes
How inflation has fallen
– Before halving (2020): Annual increase ≈ 3.7%
– After 2012 halving: ≈ 1.8%
– After 2016 halving: ≈ 0.9%
– After 2020 halving: ≈ 0.45%
– After 2024 halving: ≈ 0.225%
As block rewards decrease, Bitcoins annual inflation rate is halved simultaneously, which tends to push up BTC market prices .
Next halving prediction
The halving is determined by the block height and is expected to reach the next 210,000 blocks in early 2028. Traders can monitor the block height to plan spot and futures positions in advance.
Historical halving and price performance
2012 halving: ~$12 → $1,000
– Block reward reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC
– Price before halving is about $12 (BTC/USDT BTC/USD)
– One year after the halving, the price is about $1,000 (≈ + 8,200%)
2016 halving: ~$650 → $2,500
– Block reward reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC
– Price before halving: around $650
– One year after the halving, the price is about $2,500 (≈ + 285%)
2020 halving: ~$8,600 → $60,000
– Block reward reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC
– Price before halving: about $8,600
– One year after the halving, the price is about $60,000 (≈ + 600%)
2024 halving: ~$60,000 → $109,800
– Block reward reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC
– Price before halving: around $60,000
– Price one year after halving (as of May 2025) ~$109,800 (≈ +83%)
Summary of key points:
– Each halving will cause a sharp drop in the supply of new Bitcoins, creating a scarcity effect, which often causes the BTC price to rise by hundreds or even thousands of percentage points.
– The historical increases are: + 8,200% in 2012, + 285% in 2016, and + 600% in 2020.
– On the eve of halving, on-chain data (such as MVRV, SOPR, hash rate change) and open interest of Bitcoin contracts tend to rise significantly, reflecting the bullish sentiment of the market.
On-chain and miner dynamics after halving
Supply reduction and network scarcity
Each Bitcoin halving will directly cut the number of new BTC in half - before April 2024, the annual inflation rate was about 1.8%; after the halving, it dropped to about 0.9%. As the issuance of new coins slows down, the circulating Bitcoin becomes more scarce and more in line with the positioning of digital gold . For investors who hold for a long time and pay attention to the price of BTC , the slowdown in supply growth often brings bullish momentum to the market.
Hashrate and Difficulty Adjustment
After the halving, miners with less efficient computing power shut down their mining machines, causing the 7-day moving average computing power to drop from about 88 EH/s to 79 EH/s; the network difficulty also dropped by about 10% from 88.1 T to 79.5 T. Since then, the difficulty and computing power have gradually recovered, and by mid-2024, the computing power has stabilized at 82 EH/s; by the beginning of 2025, the 7-day SMA computing power has risen to about 89 EH/s, only 2% lower than before the halving, indicating that large mining companies continue to support network security.
Miner income and fee dynamics
On the day of the halving, the block subsidy dropped to 3.125 BTC, but due to the surge in on-chain activities driven by new protocols (such as Runes), the transaction fee surged, resulting in a revenue of about $0.17 per PH/s (hash price) on that day. From January to July 2024, the network transaction fee totaled nearly 12,970 BTC (about $863 million), accounting for more than 55% of the transaction fee for the whole year of 2023; after the halving, the transaction fee accounted for as much as 75% of the total income of miners. Therefore, even if the subsidy is reduced, miners as a whole can still maintain profitability and ensure network security.
Long-term behavior of miners
After the block reward is reduced, marginal miners using old equipment face the pressure of losses when the BTC price falls below about $50-55/PH/s/day. In the first quarter of 2024, several listed mining companies raised about $1.8 billion to purchase high-efficiency mining machines, which accelerated the industry reshuffle and improved network resilience, but also brought about the concentration of computing power. On-chain observers often judge the risk of miners selling by monitoring large addresses flowing to exchanges, which may put pressure on BTC spot prices (such as BTC/USDT ) or BTC contract shorts in the short term.
On-chain metrics worth watching
– MVRV (market value to realized value ratio): If MVRV > 1 after halving, most holders have made a profit and the sentiment is optimistic.
– SOPR (Spending-Output-Profit Ratio): When SOPR is continuously > 1, holders are cashing in their earnings, which may suppress price gains in the medium term.
– Realized Cap: A sustained rise indicates growing confidence among market participants.
Closely tracking these on-chain signals can provide early warnings before BTC spot and BTC contract market prices change, helping traders better grasp the market.
Market sentiment and media influence
Bullish signal: driving Bitcoin price higher
Social media popularity
– Twitter trending tags: #BitcoinBull, #BTC 100K and other tags frequently appear in tweets from big Vs, reflecting the growing bullish sentiment among retail investors.
– Reddit Sentiment: On r/Bitcoin and r/CryptoCurrency, the number of top-voted posts discussing the bull market and price milestones surged by more than 30% in Q2 2025, indicating growing community confidence.
Fear and Greed Index
– It rose from 55 (Neutral) in January 2025 to 68 (Greedy) in May, indicating a sharp rise in retail investors’ FOMO sentiment.
– When the index remains above 65, retail investors tend to prefer long positions, further pushing up the price of Bitcoin .
Important news headlines
– Mercuryo CEO’s opinion: Petr Kozyakov said Bitcoin is “barely shaken by geopolitical tensions,” highlighting that major events have limited impact on prices.
– BTC accounts for more than 60%: Cointelegraph reported that funds are returning to Bitcoin from altcoins, which means that the market preference is concentrated on BTC.
– Institutional ETF Inflows: Bloomberg noted that continued record buying by institutions into Bitcoin ETFs provided continued upward momentum for prices.
Milestone Psychology
– Breaking through the $100,000 mark in early 2025, triggering a surge in Google Trends searches and new wallet registrations, further pushing prices to new highs.
Macro resistance
– Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Interest Rate Outlook: The May 2025 FOMC minutes showed that officials were hawkish, emphasizing tariff and inflation risks, leading to a brief correction in the crypto market.
– U.S. Treasury yields: The 10-year yield rose from 3.5% in January 2025 to 4.6% in May. Higher yields typically weaken risk appetite and trigger outflows.
– A stronger dollar: The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose above 104 in May. Historically, a stronger dollar is often accompanied by a short-term pullback in Bitcoin as funds flow from risky assets to safe-haven assets.
Future Outlook: Where is Bitcoin Price Going?
1. Key technical points
– Support levels: $80,000 – $85,000 and $65,000
– Resistance levels: $110,000 – $115,000 and $125,000
– Volume pattern: large volume during a decline, small volume during a rebound - if the rebound volume is insufficient, be wary of a false breakout
– On-chain signals: Pay attention to MVRV, SOPR, NVT and other indicators to judge overbought/oversold; the continued increase in exchange balances indicates short-selling pressure
2. Fundamental driving factors
– ETF inflows vs. weakening institutional demand: Pay attention to Grayscale GBTC unlocking trends
– Miners’ profit balance: mining cost is about 50-55 USD/PH/s/day, and selling may be triggered when the price falls below
– Retail adoption rate: new wallet registrations, growth in active users on the chain, and access to portals such as PayPal and Cash App
– Mainstream financial integration: Continuously monitor the integration progress of on-chain activity and traditional financial services
Potential catalysts and risks
– New ETFs approved: such as Ethereum-Bitcoin hybrid funds
- Sovereign adoption: Countries other than El Salvador followed suit
– Macro events: Fed’s unexpectedly more hawkish statement, escalating tensions between China and the US
– Technology upgrade: Taproot, Lightning Network and other improvements have been implemented
– Regulatory policy changes: futures regulation, tax policy adjustments
– Macroeconomic indicators: inflation data, unemployment rate and other indicators
at last
Spot and Futures
Spot (such as BTC/USDT ) directly reflects immediate demand, while BTC/USD Coin-M perpetual contracts can use leverage to amplify the market or predict a reversal. The futures basis (premium/discount) also indicates long and short preferences.
Current price drivers
As of mid-2025, Bitcoin prices are hovering around $100,000, driven primarily by ETF inflows, strong on-chain metrics, and retail FOMO. However, a short-term correction is possible if exchange balances continue to climb or macro headwinds intensify.
suggestion
– Track BTC prices in real time at XT.com;
– Compare spot and futures open interest to gauge market sentiment;
– Properly allocate spot and futures, and use diversification strategies to spread risks;
– Set tight stops to account for high volatility and leverage risk.
Bitcoin Halving FAQ
What triggers the Bitcoin halving? And how often?
Every approximately 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), the block reward is halved, reducing the supply and thus affecting the price of Bitcoin.
What impact did past halvings have on spot and futures?
Historically, after each halving, the BTC spot price has seen a sharp increase (+8,200% in 2012, +285% in 2016, +600% in 2020), and the open interest of BTC contracts usually begins to surge before the halving.
What on-chain metrics should we pay attention to before and after the halving?
By monitoring indicators such as MVRV, SOPR, NVT, computing power and exchange balance, we can judge changes in market sentiment in advance.
How do miner costs and fees change after halving?
After the block subsidy was halved, the proportion of transaction fees in miners’ income increased. The break-even point for marginal miners is about 50-55 USD/PH/s/day, and staking projects like XT Earn also provide additional income opportunities.
Can halving guarantee long-term price increases for Bitcoin?
No - although supply is tightening, the macro environment, regulatory policies and market demand remain the key factors determining price trends.
When will the next halving take place? What changes will there be?
It is expected to be around mid-2028. By then, mining efficiency will be higher, on-chain applications will be more extensive, and futures products and staking options (such as XT Earn) will continue to evolve.
