Last week (May 6-May 12), BTC and ETH both climbed, with BTC prices returning to $100,000 and ETH rising by more than 45% during the week. Driven by the 10% tariff agreement between the UK and the US and Trumps positive remarks, the BTC price broke through the $100,000 mark from $95,784.61, and then adjusted sideways, rising to $105,819.45 on the 12th. The current BTC price is stable at around $102,498, with a maximum increase of 10.47% during the week.
Driven by network upgrades and easing economic conditions, ETH surged 45.77% last week. On May 8, ETH rebounded from a low of $1,789.12, rising more than 40% in 72 hours, breaking through the key resistance level of $2,600. On the 12th, ETH rose to a high of $2,624, then fell back slightly. The current ETH price is around $2,453 (data source: Binance spot, May 13, 14:50).
Market Interpretation
The tariff farce is coming to an end, and the United States has reached agreements with several trading partners
Recently, the US tariffs have gradually transitioned from white-hot to peaceful resolution. As the US gradually signed agreements with multiple trade partners last week, international capital gradually flowed back to the US market, and risk assets also rose. As of the close of the US stock market on May 13, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, the SP 500 rose 3.26%, and the Dow Jones rose 2.81%. The three major US stock indices all closed at high levels in recent days.
Technology stocks performed well, with Amazon up nearly 8%, Meta up nearly 8%, Tesla up 6.8%, Apple up 6.3%, Nvidia and AMD up more than 5%. Utilities and consumer staples sectors fell.
China and the United States reached a Geneva trade agreement, and the crypto market welcomed a positive catalyst
On May 12, China and the United States reached a temporary tariff agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, significantly reducing bilateral tariffs in the next three months, with the U.S. tariff rate reduced from 145% to 30% and the Chinese tariff rate reduced from 125% to 10%, and establishing a continuous negotiation mechanism. After the announcement, market expectations for inflation and dollar appreciation cooled, expectations for the inflection point of dollar liquidity increased, and the overall crypto market strengthened. BTC once surged to $105,000, and U.S. Treasury yields rose simultaneously, with 2-year and 10-year interest rates rising by 12 and 8 basis points respectively.
According to CoinW data, the total global crypto market value rose to $3.59 trillion last week, up 2.5% from the previous month. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in advance in Q3 2025, which will further benefit crypto assets.
The agreement has significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium, the markets concerns about supply chain disruptions have eased, and the flow of risky assets has been obvious. According to CoinW data, the global total market value of cryptocurrencies rose to $3.59 trillion last week, a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in advance in Q3 2025, which will further benefit crypto assets. At the same time, regulatory uncertainty remains the main risk point. With the rise in speculative enthusiasm and the concentration of liquidity, investors need to be wary of short-term pullback risks.
ETH surged 40% in the short term and entered the technical overbought range
After the previous decline, ETH has seen a strong upward trend last week, with a short-term increase of more than 45%, from $1,730 to more than $2,600. Not only did it break through the previous range of fluctuations and top the traditional media search list, it also attracted attention to the ETH ecosystem.
There are two major driving forces behind this round of ETH rise. One is the continuous inflow of funds, long positions and short squeeze. On-chain data shows that funds continue to flow in, and large buy orders are concentrated in mainstream exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase. At the same time, in the futures market, long positions have increased, and CME data shows that institutional buying positions have increased by more than 15% in a week.
On the other hand, the active Layer 2 ecosystem, rising ETH staking yields, and the upcoming ETH upgrade (Pectra) have become major positives, and the markets expectations for ETHs long-term value have increased. Investors need to be wary of the risk of overheating in the market in the short term. ETH has entered the technical overbought range, and some profit-taking has begun to reduce holdings.
BTC spot ETF has seen capital inflows for three consecutive weeks, and Trumps policy expectations have driven market optimism
Last week, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $920 million, achieving three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with $3.03 billion and $1.81 billion in the first two weeks. The continued inflow of funds shows that the market continues to be optimistic about the value and future trend of BTC.
This round of rise is closely related to Trump’s policies. On May 8, Trump announced on social media that he had reached a tariff agreement with major countries and called it “a good time to buy crypto assets.” In addition, the nomination of a pro-crypto person as SEC chairman and the advancement of stablecoin legislation have further strengthened the market’s expectations for a shift in US policy.
More information
US April CPI data will reveal expectations of slowing inflation, which may push BTC to a new high
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will be released at 8 pm Beijing time on Tuesday. The market generally expects that the trend of slowing inflation will be confirmed, which may increase expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and push BTC prices to a record high, while also accelerating the rise of the altcoin market.
CPI data plays an important role in guiding the Fed’s monetary policy. The rise in expectations of rate cuts will be a direct catalyst for high-risk assets such as BTC. However, the trend of core CPI is still a key variable. If rents or service prices rise, it may cause core CPI to exceed expectations, thereby weakening expectations of rate cuts.
South Korea’s Democratic Party established a digital asset committee before the presidential election, with policy support to promote industry development
On May 13, the Democratic Party of Korea announced that the Digital Asset Committee of its presidential election preparatory committee will hold its first meeting. The committee consists of two subgroups, one focusing on industry growth and innovation, and the other focusing on policy and legal framework support. The market has positive expectations for this new policy, which is expected to attract more capital into the digital asset industry.
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