Since BTC price broke through $85,450, the price of BTC has risen by more than 19%. With the performance of altcoins sluggish and BTC reaching a historic turning point in the global money supply indicator (often foreshadowing a strong upward trend), BTC once again tested $100,000 on the 8th and successfully broke through.
Technical indicators: BTC returns to the 21-week moving average and breaks through the Fibonacci resistance level
By April 25, BTC had re-entered our 21-week moving average of $87,199, providing a reasonable basis for buying call options, especially after BTC broke through the Fibonacci resistance level of $87,045 and ETF inflows accelerated. The signals of moving average confirmation, Fibonacci breakout, and increased ETF inflows together form a robust tactical framework that allows investors to effectively control risk while capturing BTC upside and profiting.
Macroeconomic background: Expectations of interest rate cuts decline
Over the past 18 months, global monetary policy has significantly altered capital flows into digital assets. As interest rates remain high and traditional investors reassess risk allocation, the Fed’s communication strategy becomes particularly critical. The November FOMC meeting minutes released on December 7, 2024, broke the market’s expectations of four rate cuts in 2025, cutting the rate cut forecast to just two.
Market sentiment: BTC dominance rises, altcoin market lacks narrative drive
On-chain data reveals the extent of market differentiation. BTCs market dominance (measured by its share of the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market) has risen from 49% at the beginning of the ETF era to 64.5% at present, a level that has not been seen since the DeFi boom in 2021. The change reflects the highest risk-adjusted return among all major indicators in digital assets, and the markets risk aversion tendency is obvious.
Meanwhile, retail investor sentiment remains subdued, with trading volumes at multi-year lows across both centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols. In the absence of a strong narrative driver—no new disruptive DeFi applications, Layer-2 technology breakthroughs, or viral meme-coin crazes—retail investors remain on the sidelines. Discussions about altcoins on social media have fallen by more than 40% since December 2024, while BTC-related discussions remain high, reflecting the markets continued interest in BTC as a macro hedge asset.
Summer consolidation is imminent, and in the absence of major catalysts, sentiment-driven gains in altcoins are unlikely to form. Given that technical, macro, and market structure factors have not driven altcoins positively, the funding rate for altcoin perpetual contracts remains low. Maintaining a long position in BTC in the form of spot or perpetual futures and using altcoin perpetual futures as a hedging tool may be a good arbitrage method.
Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
