Odaily Editorial Tea Session (June 24)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial team. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuanced details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under verification—which may not be direct keys to wealth and could just be questions themselves; shares observations gained from communicating with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observational experiences of Odaily editorial team members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to build consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and chat with us.

Moni (@mich73692)

Bio: Keep pushing, keep growing

Share: SpaceX's IPO initially rose but then fell, drawing significant attention. Some believe the short-term price is more driven by IPO capital games, market sentiment, AI valuation logic, and institutional allocation rather than traditional valuation models. However, I feel SpaceX isn't genuinely an "AI-themed stock" (rushing to merge xAI to capitalize on the AI concept before listing); it's at best a tech-aerospace stock. Therefore, I'm not bullish on it long-term. I tried buying US stocks on Binance, and the experience was quite smooth (I recommend transferring funds through a wallet). However, I bought SpaceX at $220 for the experience, and the outcome was predictable. My preliminary judgment is that it will be difficult for the price to rebound to its previous high before August.

According to the Kondratiev Wave theory, if the ChatGPT launch is considered the starting point of the AI cycle, we are indeed in the "early to middle stage." So currently, I'm bullish on US stock sectors like chips, memory, and photonics. Again, applying the Kondratiev Wave theory, if Bitcoin's inception is the starting point, it seems we are gradually entering the "middle to late stage" of the cycle. There might be 1 or 2 more bursts of excitement in the crypto market, but it will likely slowly transition into the third and fourth phases of the Kondratiev Wave, similar to the property market in 2015-2016.

golem (@web3_golem)

Bio: Golem's wild ideas

Share: Looking at the option open interest structure for SPCX expiring this week, there's actually more to decipher. SPCX options began trading on June 16th, and call options were heavily bought right after trading started. Because SpaceX's circulating supply is extremely low (4.2%), some analysts speculated that SPCX option trading would trigger a Gamma Squeeze, driving the SPCX stock price up. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Instead, SPCX saw a sharp decline, a victory for the bears.

Back to the present. As shown in the chart, SPCX is currently trading around $156, but the largest open interest isn't on the Put side. Instead, it's concentrated on Calls at $170, $180, $200, and even $300, especially the towering green bullish pillar near $180 (over 16K). Undoubtedly, with only 2 days left until expiry and no super-major positive catalyst, the $180 level acts as a ceiling.

Conversely, structurally, $150 remains the most critical psychological and technical support level for SPCX currently. If it breaks down, we need to watch if the safety cushion at $140-$145 can hold. For now, the support seems strong enough. However, if Musk pulls another stunt, causing the price to break downwards and triggering a negative Gamma effect, it could very easily fall below the issue price.

Looking at the chart, $160 is the current battleground between bulls and bears. The OI for calls and puts at the $160-$165 strike prices is extremely dense. Considering only 2 days remain until expiry, market makers will likely pin the price right here, bleeding premium from option buyers on both sides.

But after SPCX's consecutive sharp decline, a lot of capital is still betting on a sharp short-term rebound. Therefore, if SPCX can effectively break through $165 and stand above $170, there is a possibility of triggering another Gamma Squeeze.

In summary, in this high-OI zone, we still need to be cautious, especially about opening high-leverage bets in the "awkward zone" of $155-$160 to gamble on direction. Either wait for a volume-supported consolidation above $160, or patiently wait for a dip to $145-$150.

However, analysis and execution always differ. For example, yesterday I was fixated on catching SPCX at $145, but the low only reached around $147. During the session, it fluctuated to $165. Because of my stubbornness for a lower price, I missed this fluctuation.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Bio: Tea-pouring junior, crypto bystander, media observer

Share: 1. I never imagined that Strategy's STRC preferred stock was a play Saylor came up with using AI. Looking at the current situation, it's like "the American Zongzi says: Sorry, but this does have a death spiral problem." As a bellwether for the entire industry, I think we need to go through a "coin desensitization" phase, and Bitcoin needs to definitively break through the rock-bottom support of $49k for the next bull market to begin.

2. Lately, I've seen many people discussing concepts like "old stocks" and "young stocks." I think many Chinese concept stocks fall into this category, and even "Chinese characteristic assets" like baijiu stocks are on their last legs. Better to play with the "new generation stocks." Cherish life, stay away from the old guard.

3. After the first round of group stage matches in the World Cup, the major豪门 teams have finally found their form. My strategy remains the same: buy championship predictions, as the odds still offer value.

4. The Ethereum Foundation layoffs plus the establishment of ETHlabs means the official Ethereum organization is finally getting serious. But it doesn't even seem like shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted. For the ETH price this year, I'm first looking at the previous low (around $890).

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Bio: Options enthusiast, Meme bag holder

Share: Recently, Ethereum has seen several fundamental "positive" developments. First, a few veteran researchers established an independent non-profit R&D institute called Ethlabs, which has received support from major players like Joe Lubin (Ethereum co-founder), Bitmine, and SharpLink. Their goal is to help Ethereum achieve institutional-grade mass adoption, focusing on hardcore aspects like scaling, settlement, and interoperability. Second, the Ethereum Foundation is also starting to "slim down," gradually reducing its direct intervention role. Combined, these two events show the Ethereum ecosystem is becoming increasingly decentralized. It no longer solely relies on the foundation; more smart minds can work independently, making the network stronger.

Honestly, the current ETH price is a bit painful to watch. Many people, including myself, have been buying the dip all the way down from $4000, incurring significant opportunity costs. However, Ethereum's fundamentals are rock solid; its value is just undervalued. Long-term, this is a good time for patient accumulation.

Another thing worth watching is SPCX. I personally plan to buy in early July, when SPCX is expected to be included in the Nasdaq-100 index, which should bring in a wave of buying. I plan to sell by the end of July, as the August earnings report is expected to be less than optimistic.