The Ultimate Forecast from Silicon Valley's Brightest Minds: What Should We "All-In" on in 2026?
- Core Viewpoint: Top investors from the "All-In Podcast" predict that 2026 will be a pivotal year of accelerating divergence in the global economic and technological landscape. The US may achieve high growth through a "Trump Boom" and AI breakthroughs, while structural challenges will reshape industries and asset performance.
- Key Elements:
- Macro Forecast: Guests are generally optimistic about US GDP growth in 2026, with predictions ranging from 4.6% to 6.2%, believing a "Trump Boom" and AI will drive the economy.
- Industry Winners: Bullish on Amazon (automation), critical metals (e.g., copper), Huawei, prediction markets, and the IPO market, believing these sectors will benefit from technological trends or geopolitics.
- Industry Losers: Bearish on California (due to tax policies), enterprise SaaS, traditional media (e.g., Netflix), and employment for young American white-collar workers, expecting impacts from automation, AI, and policy shifts.
- Major Deals: Predictions include AI M&A exceeding $50 billion, large-scale IP licensing partnerships, resolutions to geopolitical conflicts, and a boom in the code assistant sector.
- Contrarian Views: Bold hypotheses include SpaceX potentially merging with Tesla, central banks launching sovereign cryptocurrencies, AI becoming a net job creator, and a potential thaw in US-China relations.
- Asset Performance: Bullish on platform-based speculative assets, critical metals, prediction markets, and tech stocks; bearish on the US dollar, oil, traditional media stocks, and high-end California real estate.
- Political Landscape: Predicts anti-bureaucratic forces, democratic socialists, and the "Trump Boom" as winners; the tech industry and centrist Democrats may become political losers.
At the beginning of 2026, the world stands at a profoundly divided crossroads.
On one side, inflation is receding, AI is accelerating its penetration, and capital markets are stirring; on the other side, geopolitical friction, rising institutional uncertainty, and widespread skepticism about whether "the next round of growth truly exists" prevail. Against this backdrop, the globally influential tech business podcast *All-In Podcast* released its annual ultimate predictions:
Hosted by renowned Silicon Valley angel investor (early investor in Uber and Robinhood) Jason Calacanis, the episode featured three heavyweight guests: "SPAC King" Chamath, "Science Sultan" David Friedberg, and David Sacks, known to the outside world as the White House's first "AI and Crypto Czar."
These top minds, controlling hundreds of billions of dollars and deeply versed in the logic of power and capital, engaged in a fiery debate around politics, technology, investment, and the geopolitical landscape—from California's wealth tax crisis to expectations of 6% GDP growth, from bullish views on Huawei/prediction markets to the startling hypothesis that SpaceX might merge into Tesla, and more.
MSX Research Institute has distilled the core viewpoints from their intellectual collision for our readers.
The "11 Major Predictions" from the 4 Titans
Source: Image generated via AI compilation
Regarding California's wealth tax and capital flight risks, they respectively believe:
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Has already clearly chosen to leave the California circle; his combined net worth amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars, posing a substantive long-term fiscal impact on California;
- David Friedberg: The proposal is highly unlikely to truly be implemented, but it has already exposed structural pressures on local finances;
- David Sacks: The wealth tax is the direct reason I left California. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone expects some version of it to return in 2028;
Regarding the biggest business winner of 2026, they respectively believe:
- Jason Calacanis: Bullish on Amazon; it will be the first to reach the "corporate singularity," becoming the first company where robots contribute more profit than humans. Its automated warehouses and logistics network have already built a very high moat;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Chooses copper; geopolitics and supply chain security will trigger long-term supply-demand imbalances. At the current rate, by 2040, there will be a roughly 70% global copper supply gap;
- David Friedberg: Bullish on Huawei and prediction markets (PM). The former continues to make breakthroughs in its technological system, while the latter is evolving from a niche product into new infrastructure for information and price discovery, potentially exploding this year;
- David Sacks: 2026 will be a big year for IPOs. The "Trump Boom" will restart the capital market expansion cycle, leading to many successful company listings and creating trillions in new market cap; also agrees with Jason Calacanis's assessment of Amazon, but for different reasons (not elaborated);
Regarding the biggest business loser of 2026, they respectively believe:
- Jason Calacanis: Young American white-collar workers will be most impacted, with entry-level positions being replaced first by AI and automation;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: The "maintenance and migration" revenue model of enterprise SaaS will be systematically compressed under AI's impact;
- David Friedberg: State government finances; pension liabilities and solvency issues will be exposed collectively;
- David Sacks: California; regulatory and tax uncertainty will continue to drive out capital and businesses;
Regarding the most significant deal type of 2026, they respectively believe:
- Jason Calacanis: There will be an AI giant merger exceeding $50 billion;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Believes traditional M&A will give way to large-scale IP licensing collaborations; this deal type will become more common and mature in 2026;
- David Friedberg: Conflict resolution at the geopolitical level will be the "biggest deal"; the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be resolved this year;
- David Sacks: Bullish on the explosion of the Coding Assistants and Tool Use sectors;
Regarding the boldest contrarian prediction for 2026, they respectively believe:
- Jason Calacanis: China-US relations will see substantive easing, with both sides reaching a win-win working relationship;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Two contrarian predictions: first, SpaceX will not IPO but might reverse-merge into Tesla; second, central banks will build a new sovereign cryptocurrency paradigm (different from BTC);
- David Friedberg: If the Iran situation continues to deepen, it might instead exacerbate Middle East instability;
- David Sacks: AI will become a job expander, not a job destroyer; we are likely to see employment growth;
Regarding the best-performing asset of 2026, they respectively believe:
- Jason Calacanis: Bullish on platform assets like speculation; in this environment where the economy is about to take off, interest rates might be cut, and people have spare cash, there will be more disposable money for betting and speculation;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Continues to bet on a basket of critical metals, including copper;
- David Friedberg: Prediction markets, which are replacing the functions of traditional media and markets, have huge potential;
- David Sacks: Chooses the tech expansion supercycle;
Regarding the worst-performing asset of 2026, they respectively believe:
- Jason Calacanis: The US dollar will continue to face pressure;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Believes oil is entering a long-term downtrend, potentially falling towards $45 per barrel;
- David Friedberg: Bearish on Netflix and traditional media stocks;
- David Sacks: Bearish on high-end California real estate;
Regarding the most anticipated trend of 2026, they respectively believe:
- Jason Calacanis: The IPO market makes a triumphant return; among giants like SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI, at least two will file for listing this year;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Anticipates the expansion of "Trumpism"—unilateralism, economic resilience—as a massive trend, the result of which will be massive GDP growth;
- David Friedberg: The reshaping of the Middle East landscape resulting from the deepening Iran situation;
- David Sacks: Audits of government spending at all levels; a "decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)" needs to be institutionalized to let the public see where the money is spent;
Regarding the biggest political winner of 2026:
- Jason Calacanis: Young left-wing political figures;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Anti-waste, anti-bureaucracy political forces;
- David Friedberg: Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), who are taking over the Democratic Party; this trend will solidify in 2026;
- David Sacks: "Trump Boom," predicting a 75 to 100 basis point rate cut by June;
Regarding the biggest political loser of 2026:
- Jason Calacanis: Democratic Party centrists;
- Chamath Palihapitiya: The Monroe Doctrine—because Trumpism has surpassed it;
- David Friedberg: The tech industry, becoming a common target for populists on both the left and right;
- David Sacks: Democratic Party centrists;
Predictions for US GDP growth rate in 2026:
- Chamath Palihapitiya: Lower bound 5%, upper bound 6.2%;
- David Friedberg: 4.6%;
- David Sacks: 5%;
Final Thoughts
Just today, China also announced its 2025 national economic performance, with GDP reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, meeting the target as scheduled.
If we zoom out to a global coordinate system and consider exchange rate factors over the next one to two years, we find that the GDP gap (measured in USD) between China and the US, which widened significantly in the past two years, seems to be showing subtle signs of narrowing substantially again at this juncture.
This juxtaposition is quite thought-provoking: on one side is China, seeking high-quality growth amidst structural adjustments; on the other side is the US, as described by the *All-In Podcast*, attempting to forcefully leap out of its growth mediocrity period through "Trump Boom + AI Singularity."
It can be said that the world's only two major economies are simultaneously entering a re-competition phase centered on productivity and structural efficiency. It is precisely against this backdrop that Chamath Palihapitiya's statement on the show appears particularly provocative: "Don't bet against the US economy; it's ready to take off. 6% GDP growth is not a fantasy."
But the prerequisite is that in this year of accelerated reshuffling, you must stand on the side of productivity, not on the side being eliminated.
Perhaps this is the most important question in this cycle.
Let's encourage each other.
