K33: Bitcoin long-term holders' selling saturation is nearing its end; liquidity pressures are expected to ease.

According to a report released yesterday by research and brokerage firm K33, selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing saturation after years of distribution, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, points out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years has been declining, with approximately 1.6 million BTC being reactivated and entering the market, worth about $138 billion at current prices. This reflects ongoing on-chain sales by early holders. Lunde believes this scale clearly exceeds what can be explained by technological migration or structural adjustments, indicating substantial allocation activity.

The report states that 2024 and 2025 will be the second and third highest years in Bitcoin's history in terms of long-term supply recirculation, second only to 2017. Unlike the distribution cycle driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms in those years, this round of selling is more about long-term holders realizing profits from deep liquidity needs arising from direct investment in US Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate financial requirements.

Looking ahead, K33 anticipates selling pressure will gradually ease. Lunde stated that approximately 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation. The Bitcoin supply held for more than two years may end its current downward trend in 2026, exceeding the current level of approximately 12.16 million BTC. Furthermore, K33 also points to a potential asset allocation rebalancing effect at the end of the quarter and the beginning of the next. Given Bitcoin's significant underperformance compared to other assets in the fourth quarter, the reallocation of funds with fixed allocation ratios at the end of the year and the beginning of next year may bring a temporary inflow of funds into the market.