A key inflation indicator released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday showed that September's inflation rate was lower than expected. This report, delayed due to the government shutdown, further signals a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. The monthly rate met expectations, but the year-on-year rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than expected. Additionally, according to data from the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, overall personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3% month-on-month, and the annual inflation rate was also 2.8%. Both figures were in line with expectations. Federal Reserve officials use the PCE price index as a primary policy tool for measuring inflation. While officials consider both overall and core data, they generally believe that the core data is a better indicator of long-term inflation trends. The report was delayed for several weeks due to the government shutdown, during which all data collection and economic reporting were suspended. (Jinshi)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Bank of America strategists say the year-end stock market rally could be threatened if the Federal Reserve's economic outlook next week is overly cautious. The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently near record highs, and investors are confident in the best-case scenario of a Fed rate cut, falling inflation, and resilient economic growth. However, a dovish signal from the Fed at next week's meeting could test this optimism—as it could suggest a larger-than-expected economic slowdown. Analyst Michael Hartnett wrote in a report, "The only thing that could stop a Santa Claus rally is a dovish Fed rate cut triggering a sell-off in long-term Treasury bonds." (Jinshi)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that unless some kind of "black swan" disruption occurs, "we are going to have a golden year in economic history." He added that he would be "disappointed" if growth in the first and second quarters of next year is only 3%. "The growth rate could easily be another percentage point higher." Furthermore, Hassett reiterated his expectation that Federal Reserve policymakers will lower interest rates at their meeting next week. "Now is a good time for the Fed to cautiously cut rates again." (Jinshi)

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Coinbase Institutional published an article on the X platform stating that although the crypto market is still volatile, it may see a recovery in December due to improved liquidity, a surge in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut to 92% (as of December 4), and an increase in positive macroeconomic factors. The so-called "artificial intelligence bubble" has not yet burst and there is still room for growth. In addition, shorting the US dollar at current prices is quite attractive. Therefore, a market reversal is expected in December, which may very well be the starting point for the re-establishment of momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde stated that December could be a turning point for the recent crypto market, with structural upside potential emerging. Bitcoin's current valuation reflects market panic more than fundamental factors, and the probability of a significant market rally is far greater than the chance of another 80% drop. December may present a good opportunity for aggressive buying. Furthermore, the market is overreacting to distant threats, such as the risks of quantum computing and a potential sell-off of Bitcoin by Strategy (MSTR), while ignoring recent strong signals, including the potential allowance of cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement accounts and the Federal Reserve's shift towards supporting cryptocurrencies. (CoinDesk)

According to a research report by CICC, as reported by Odaily Planet Daily, under the baseline scenario, if Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chairman, it may cause US Treasury yields and the US dollar to fall first and then rise, which would be generally beneficial to US stocks.

From a timeline perspective, Trump will announce the nomination of a new chairman in early 2026. For Hassett, he needs to be nominated as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and confirmed by the Senate, then nominated as chairman and confirmed again. He will officially become chairman after the current chairman Powell's term expires in May 2026, and may begin to lead the FOMC meeting as early as June.

The first quarter of next year is a crucial period for influencing market expectations after the new chairman's nomination. If Hassett's statements are overly dovish, a temporary unexpected drop in US Treasury yields and the dollar cannot be ruled out. However, as long as it doesn't significantly escalate to the point of "loss of independence concerns," the realization of expectations coupled with the recovery of the US economy could lead to an upward trend in US Treasury yields and the dollar. (Jinshi)