International Monetary Fund: The market has begun to bet on a Fed rate hike

Odaily reported that the International Monetary Fund stated that the return of the US Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target is now expected by the end of 2027, compared to a previous forecast of mid-2027. The market has started to bet on rate hikes. Due to rising inflation risks, the Fed should act cautiously in its interest rate policy. It has observed some inflationary pass-through from US tariff increases, as well as renewed pressure from energy prices on overall inflation. Global oil inventories are expected to fall to 7.5 billion barrels in July, the lowest level in five years; before the outbreak of the Iran war, they stood at about 8 billion barrels. The Iran war has suppressed global oil production by approximately 14 million barrels per day. Future oil price trends will depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz can reopen. (Jinshi)