Bitcoin model predicts year-end high could reach $255,000, with long-term valuation range shifting up to $308,000

Odaily Planet Daily News Bitcoin has fallen about 40% from its all-time high in October 2025, but long-term valuation models suggest there is still significant upside potential. Based on the "Bitcoin Decay Channel" calculation of long-term trends, the conservative year-end range for Bitcoin has been raised to $90,000–$255,000, with the high-end scenario potentially reaching $255,000.

This model, by fitting the logarithmic decay trend of highs and lows across previous cycles, shows that BTC's cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 were all close to the upper band, while bear market bottoms retreated near the lower band. Analyst Sminston stated that Bitcoin is still within a historic long-term upward channel and noted that the price range could further expand to $128,000–$308,000 by 2027.

Meanwhile, the on-chain "HODL Waves" indicator suggests a potential bottom range near $65,900–$70,500, implying that if the market continues to weaken, the downside is limited. Some institutions, such as Bernstein, maintain a $150,000 target for 2026, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that BTC could still challenge levels above $126,000 driven by liquidity. (Cointelegraph)