Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author｜Nan Zhi ( @Assassin_Malvo )

Four days ago, Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole saw a sharp rise due to the positive comments made by Fed Chairman Powell on the September rate cut. However, at 5 a.m. today, Bitcoin suddenly began to fall rapidly , falling from 61,870 USDT to 58,000 USDT in two hours, a drop of about 6.3%.

OKX market data shows that BTC briefly touched 65010 USDT on the morning of the 26th, forming a recent high; in the past two days, BTC has been falling all the way, with the cumulative maximum decline exceeding 10%; as of press time, BTC fluctuated around 59100 USDT.

The decline of "mainstream altcoins" other than BTC is not much different from BTC. At 5 a.m., ETH fell 3.5%, BNB fell 2.17%, and SOL fell 3%. The Meme sector fell more sharply . During the same period, PEPE fell 5.9%, BONK fell 3.8%, BRETT fell 3.5%, and WIF fell 2.9%.

Affected by the decline of BTC, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has also fallen sharply. According to Coingecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has fallen to 2.17 trillion US dollars, a 24-hour drop of 7.02%.

In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $319 million , of which the vast majority are long orders, amounting to $287 million. In terms of currencies, ETH liquidated $102 million and BTC liquidated $95.71 million.

September Curse

Odaily has compiled the monthly performance data of BTC since 2014. From the monthly average, only three months have seen an average decline, and only September has seen a significant decline, and the proportion of years with declines is the highest . However, after September, October is the month with the largest increase in both proportion and magnitude.

This rule is not only reflected in the crypto market, but also in the long-term bull market of the U.S. stock market. The average monthly performance of the Nasdaq index over the past 10 years is shown in the figure below. There were only two years of growth in the past ten years, and in most cases there was a certain degree of decline.

Ethereum spot ETF continues to outflow, Vitalik is caught in a public opinion war

According to public data, the Ethereum spot ETF has experienced outflows for 9 consecutive days, with a cumulative net outflow of $481 million . The market expectation that "Grayscale's selling power will weaken and the overall market will turn to net inflows" did not happen.

Currently, Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF ETHE has only outflowed about 35%, and it is not yet time for the marginal reversal of selling power. BlackRock, the main inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF before, has not shown the same positive power again. ETHE has a cumulative net outflow of US$2.55 billion, while BlackRock's ETHA has a net inflow of about US$1 billion. It will take a long time for the marginal reversal .

On the other hand, the community gradually lost confidence in Ethereum due to various problems such as weak token performance, poor application development, and serious homogeneity of a large number of Layer 2. The Ethereum Foundation transferred 35,000 ETH to Kraken on August 24 , which was worth about 94.07 million US dollars at the time. Vitalik, the soul of Ethereum, was also questioned for " not understanding DeFi ". The founder of DeFiance Capital even said: "The worst view is that the founder of the largest L1 public chain does not really understand the use cases and industries that drive the price of ETH and make its market value as high as 330 billion US dollars. The price of ETH may be seen at $0.03."

Options data: Layout of long positions in September and October

Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform that after multiple attempts to hit the pressure level failed, cryptocurrencies entered a correction trend. The implied volatility IV of major maturities has dropped significantly. Currently, BTC Dvol has fallen below 50%, and only 30% of the time in the past year has been below the current level. From the options data, RV has dropped from 100% at the high point on August 9 to the current 40%, and the actual volatility level of BTC has dropped sharply, which is also an important factor driving the decline in IV. In terms of block trading, today, block call options have begun to appear one after another, with maturities mostly selected at the end of September and the end of October, and whale users have begun to layout and go long .

Rate cuts are priced in, and the market is entering a period of chaos

There is still debate about Vitalik’s cognition, the significance of his work and the Ethereum Foundation’s expenditure. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion. The market has entered a period of insufficient expectations and chaos. The next grand narrative or expectation is urgently needed to ignite and lead the enthusiasm of the market and funds.