Last Friday, Fed Chairman Powell gave a speech after the PCE data was released. He changed his previous dovish stance and expressed to the market that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates under the current situation. After this, yesterday (1 APR) the U.S. March ISM The industry index recorded 50.3, exceeding expectations and expanding for the first time since 2022. The markets expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June have once again weakened (the futures market priced this probability to 50/50). U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, and the two-year / ten-year period touched 4.70% and 4.35% respectively, and the dovish narrative continues to face challenges.

Source: SignalPlus,Economic Calendar; this week will release U.S. non-farm employment index, hourly wages and other data

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

Source: Coinglass

In terms of digital currency, BTC fell to US$66,000 during the Asian trading session, breaking the recent sideways market near 70,000. However, the funding rates of major exchanges are still maintained at a high level due to one-sided long positions. Some analysts It was pointed out that this round of price adjustment may be caused by the liquidation and stop loss of long futures positions. Cryptocurrency gains appear to be losing momentum, with Vol Skew on the options market at all-time lows (25 dRR is around the 25% percentile of the past three months). From a trading perspective, the trading volume of call options in the past day has significantly exceeded that of put options. The P/C Ratio of ETH has even reached an extremely low point close to 0.2, forming a flow similar to Sell Call Spread. The short-term selling pressure of BTC is even greater. Strong, the bullish long distribution is shifting to the far end.

Source: Deribit (as of 2 APR 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew

Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading distribution, P/C Ratio reaches extremely low near 0.2

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution, strong selling pressure in the short term

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

You can search for SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: xdengalin), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends.

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com