Original - Odaily

Author - Asher

On March 13, Ethereum successfully completedCancun upgrade, entering a new era of low transaction fee L2. However, the price of Ethereum did not show an independent strong rise, and basically kept the same rise and fall as other mainstream currencies. Comparing the two neighbors next door, the community also jokingly said: Congratulations to SOL and BNB for completing the Cancun upgrade.

Things that have made the Ethereum maximalists even more bald are not over yet - in the early hours of this morning, the US SEC postponed the approval of the VanEck Ethereum spot ETF, saying that it will decide whether to approve the ETF before May 23. At the same time, there areRumorAccording to the Ethereum FoundationAccept official investigation from a certain countryOr part of a coordinated US SEC attack on Ethereum.

Under the combined influence of the two news, the price of Ethereum fell below US$3,100 in the short term, hitting a minimum of US$3,055, and the maximum drop in one hour exceeded 5%.(Odaily note: ETH has rebounded strongly with the market today and is currently trading at 3529 USDT.)

U.S. SEC delays VANECK Ethereum spot ETF

Although most people had already expected the postponement of the Ethereum spot ETF, the final postponement still had a considerable impact on the market. According to the public opinion data of the prediction platform Polymarket, as of May 31 Today, the likelihood of Ethereum spot ETF approval continues to decline, currently only 22%.

Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Probability

So, will the ETH spot ETF be further delayed or even rejected?Odaily has compiled the opinions of encryption practitioners and KOLs as follows.

Bloomberg ETF AnalystJames Seyffart：

There are currently concerns about whether the Ethereum spot ETF can pass in the short term. The U.S. SEC has not interacted with issuers on Ethereum-specific issues. This is completely contrary to the situation with Bitcoin ETFs this fall. VanEck, Ark/21 Shares and Grayscale should Delayed within the next 12 days. Moreover, the US SEC will eventually reject the spot application of the Ethereum ETF on May 23, 2024.

Bloomberg ETF AnalystEric Balchunas：

The chance of approval for the Ethereum spot ETF continues to decrease, with the chance of approval currently falling from 70% to 25%. Despite lower optimism, the SEC will only delay approval of the Ethereum ETF and not do so on May 23; however, there is still confidence that this will happen in the longer term.

Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal:

Ethereum, which has always been critical to the cryptocurrency space, is a commodity, not a security, which is the position the SEC has taken for years. The SEC did not have sufficient reason to reject the Ethereum ETF application.

FOX Business ReporterEleanor Terrett：

Optimism about the SEC approving an Ethereum spot ETF by May 23 is waning. According to its conversations with people familiar with the matter, meetings in recent weeks have been largely one-sided, with issuers and custodians trying to drum up SEC staff to move forward, but staff have not (as they did with Bitcoin spot ETF application) to really get involved in a meaningful way.

Crypto KOLDCinvestor：

While the postponement of the Ethereum Spot ETF sent ETH prices lower, a strong rebound soon followed indicating that institutions were buying. It is believed that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved in May, which may push the price of Ethereum to $10,000.

Crypto KOLMatthew Hyland：

Negative press for the Ethereum spot ETF was entirely to be expected. Wall Street institutions must need an Ethereum spot ETF to buy Ethereum, just like they cannot buy Bitcoin without a Bitcoin ETF. It is only a matter of time before it is approved.

Currently, seven entities are applying for Ethereum ETFs, namely: BlackRock, Fidelity, InvescoGalaxy, Grayscale, VanEck, 21 Shares Ark and Hashdex. The SEC approval period for each fund is as shown in the table below.May 23 will be the key deadline to apply for the Ethereum spot ETF VanEck at the earliest, its approval or rejection will also directly affect the decision-making results of other ETF applications.

Overall, with the postponement of this Ethereum spot ETF, market expectations for its adoption before the end of May have dropped significantly. Although some crypto KOLs still believe that it will pass smoothly in May, compared to spot Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum’s PoS mechanism, price manipulation, and securitization risks reduce the possibility of spot Ethereum ETFs being approved. Perhaps, we should be mentally prepared in advance for the Ethereum ETF to be postponed again.