Original Title: 46% of Biggest Airdrops Hit All-Time Highs in 2 Weeks
Original Author: Nicholas Boey, Coingecko
Original Translation: Deng Tong, Golden Finance
I. When is the Best Time to Sell Airdrops?
Among the top 50 airdrops, 23 (46%) hit their token price peak within the first two weeks after the airdrop date. This indicates that the best time to sell airdrop tokens may be within 14 days after receiving them to maximize profits.
Some airdrop tokens that achieved the highest price returns in the short term include Ethereum Name Service (day 2: +73%), X2Y2 (day 2: +121%), Blur (day 6: +90%), LooksRare (+192%: day 10), and ArbDoge AI (day 14: +425%).
In recent airdrops, Jito (day 2: +43%), Wen (day 3: +37%), Dymension (day 10: +75%), Manta (day 12: +72%), and Heroes of Mavia (day 13: +217%) also proved to be the most profitable if sold shortly after the airdrop. However, it remains to be seen if the token prices of these airdrops will reach new highs as they have only been trading for a few weeks.
Out of these 23 airdrop tokens, 16 reached their peak returns between day 2 and day 14 after the airdrop date. In other words, once the tokens are airdropped and start trading, people's interest often skyrockets. This confirms that airdrops are an effective marketing or growth strategy, but it also suggests that as more people talk about airdrops, the interest in specific tokens tends to increase, reaching a peak shortly after and reflected in the token's price.
The remaining 7 airdrops peaked on the day of the airdrop and the token prices were unable to recover afterwards. For example, the airdrop token for Solana aggregator Jupiter started trading at around $0.66 but subsequently dropped by 28% and remained below its initial price. This occurs when airdrop recipients are eager to profit from their "free funds," leading to immediate selling of the airdrop. As recipients decide to exit the airdrop over time, the token prices continue to face selling pressure and reach new lows.
On the other hand, out of the top 50 airdrops, 27 reached peak returns more than two weeks after the airdrop date, with time ranges varying from 15 to 581 days. This longer time frame for peak prices usually aligns with favorable market conditions and the growth of the respective projects, resulting in a higher valuation of the airdrop tokens beyond the initial level.
II. Market Conditions Driving Airdrop Price Returns
38% of Airdrop Tokens Reached Peak in 2021 Bull Market
In the cryptocurrency bull market, 19 out of the top 50 airdrops reached their all-time highs (ATH) in 2021. All of these were launched before or in 2021, indicating that market conditions drove higher valuations of these airdrop tokens.
Among these 19 tokens, 4 reached ATH after more than 100 days since the airdrop. These airdrop tokens were Uniswap (1.145%), 1inch (216%), Gitcoin (242%), and Bank (94%).
Compared to short-term peaks, these tokens achieved significantly higher returns with their ATH prices. For example, Uniswap had an ATH price return of 1.145%, which is 10 times the highest price return of 106% in the 14 days prior to trading.
This suggests that recipients may consider holding onto their airdrop allocations to appreciate over a longer period for higher profits during favorable market conditions.
2022: A Good Year for NFT Airdrops, but Not for Others
In 2022, market conditions were relatively pessimistic, with 11 out of the top 50 airdrop tokens reaching their ATH.
However, in early 2022, the non-fungible token (NFT) market experienced a bull run, which helped push the valuations of three of these 11 airdropped tokens (ApeCoin, LooksRare, and X2Y2) to new all-time highs. On the other hand, the other airdropped tokens that reached ATH in 2022 were launched in the same year and reached ATH shortly after the airdrop dates. Osmosis is an exception as it was launched in June 2021 but reached ATH in 2022.
This suggests that the best time to sell airdropped tokens is after the airdrop during a bear market to maximize profits.
2023 and 2024: Bullish Sentiment Returns?
The remaining 21 out of the 50 airdropped tokens reached ATH in 2023 and 2024 due to the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF and the return of bullish sentiment.
Eight out of these 21 airdropped tokens reached ATH over 100 days after the airdrop. These tokens are Arbitrum (68%), Bonk (28,091%), Celestia (777%), Optimism (186%), Aptos (34%), WorldCoin (249%), Arkham (67%), and Maverick (38%).
Five other airdrops took 15 to 100 days to reach their peak token prices, while the remaining eight tokens reached ATH within 14 days after the airdrop date. (Note that out of the eight tokens that reached ATH within 14 days, five of them were recently airdropped: Manta, Jupiter, Dymension, Heroes of Mavia, and Wen).
This indicates a shift in market sentiment in 2024, so holding airdropped tokens may be more profitable when they reach new valuations in the expected bull market.
III. When to Sell Airdrops
As of February 20, 2024, the number of days, weeks, or years it took for the top 50 airdrops to reach their all-time high token prices, and the corresponding peak price return percentages are:
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