E2M Research：Osmosis协议数据分析

特邀专栏作者

2024-01-29 05:37

This article is about 2522 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

Osmosis能迎来下一个春天么？

E2M Research: Shawn (October 2023)

Osmosis is a cross-chain DEX application chain based on the Cosmos SDK. It has become the most widely connected and liquid chain in the Cosmos ecosystem.

1. Liquidity data

The project went online in June 2021, and TVL has been on the rise since then, reaching its highest value in March 2022, at about $1.8 billion. TVL has also declined sharply starting in mid-2022, now down to around $80 million.

Data Sources:https://defillama.com/protocol/osmosis-dex

Among them, UST peaked at more than 200 million US dollars:

Data Sources:https://info.osmosis.zone/token/USTC

LUNA peaked at about $170 million:

Data source: https://info.osmosis.zone/token/LUNC

OSMO peaked at about $700 million:

Data source: https://info.osmosis.zone/token/OSMO

ATOM’s highest TVL is approximately US$400 million:

Data source: https://info.osmosis.zone/token/ATOM

The approximate statistics of other major assets are as follows:

JUNO: $80 million

STARS: $50 million

AKT: $50 million

SCRT: $20 million

Adding in other assets, its total TVL is roughly consistent with the data provided by Defillama.

Among them, the total TVL of LUNA+UST is approximately US$370 million, accounting for approximately 20%. Therefore, it can be seen that although the TVL of Osmosis dropped sharply due to the LUNA mine explosion, its proportion was not very high. The main reason for the decline is due to the decline in the price of Cosmos tokens (but there are also reasons why the public is not optimistic about the Cosmos ecosystem due to the explosion of LUNA).

From $1.8 billion to $80 million, a drop of 95.6%. For other mainstream DEX data,

Uniswap dropped from $10 billion to $3.2 billion, a drop of approximately 68%:

Data Sources:https://defillama.com/protocol/uniswap

Curve fell from US$25 billion to US$2.3 billion, a drop of 90.8%:

Data Sources:https://defillama.com/protocol/curve-dex

Another reason is that the Cosmos ecosystem does not have native USDT and USDC stablecoins, causing its TVL to be more affected by currency price fluctuations.

2. Transaction data

Osmosis’ trading volume peaked in early 2022, with monthly trading volume of approximately $3 billion. It then gradually declined, with monthly trading volume reaching approximately US$200 million in 2023:

Data Sources:https://defillama.com/protocol/osmosis-dex

Transactions on Osmosis will charge a certain fee. Most Pools charge a fee of 0.2% or 0.3%. The fees are currently all allocated to liquidity providers. Since January 2023, average monthly fee revenue has been approximately $500,000.

Data Sources:https://defillama.com/protocol/osmosis-dex

3. Network data

Osmosis is a DEX application chain based on the Cosmos SDK, so we need to analyze its network data.

According to MapOfZones data, there are currently 62 chains connected to the Cosmos ecosystem through IBC, of which the number of chains connected to Osmosis is the largest, reaching 59:

Data Sources:https://mapofzones.com/home

That’s higher than Cosmos Hub’s 54 and Axelar’s 46. Among them, Cosmos Hub is the first chain in the Cosmos ecosystem, and Axelar is the largest cross-chain bridge in the Cosmos ecosystem. A large number of Ethereum assets are transferred to the Cosmos ecosystem through this bridge.

Connectivity is where Osmosis differs from contract-based DEX projects. Only assets connected to Osmosis through IBC can be traded on it. In this regard, it is difficult for other DEXs in the Cosmos ecosystem to compete with Osmosis. This is one of its biggest advantages.

Its daily active users currently range from 10,000 to 20,000:

Data Sources:https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/projects/osmosis

Ranked 5th among mainstream DEX projects. Among them, PancakeSwap is 69,000 and Uniswap is 50,000:

Data Sources:https://tokenterminal.com/terminal?panel=user_dau

4. Ecological data

The Osmosis chain is mainly dominated by Osmosis DEX, and there are also some project parties building other types of DeFi projects on the chain.

For example, Mars Protocol is the main lending protocol, Levana Perps perpetual contract platform, and Quasar is the income protocol surrounding DEX.

Data Sources:https://defillama.com/chain/Osmosis

In terms of stablecoins, since Circle issued native USDC assets on the Noble chain, Osmosis has native stablecoin support, but the current adoption rate is still low.

The total amount of USDC currently issued on the Noble chain is approximately US$4.5 million:

Data Sources:https://www.mintscan.io/noble/assets

The cross-chain to Osmosis is only about 3.2 million US dollars, and most of the rest is still axlUSDC cross-chain from Axelar. At the same time, the native USDT stablecoin from the Kava chain is only about 600,000 US dollars.

Data Sources:https://www.mintscan.io/osmosis/assets

5. Token data

The OSMO token is a governance token that allows staking token holders to decide the future of the protocol, including every implementation detail. OSMO will initially be used for:

Governance functions such as voting on protocol upgrades
Allocate mining rewards to different liquidity pools
As a gas token for the Osmosis chain

There are also recent proposals being discussed to charge transaction fees and distribute them to OSMO token holders.

The figure below is the release schedule of OSMO tokens. The initial circulation is 100 million, which means 50 million airdrops and 50 million strategic reserves. The remaining 900 million tokens will be allocated to OSMO staking incentives, developers, liquidity incentives, and community treasury at a rate of 300 million in the first year and 1/3 reduction every year until they are released.

But in the recent OSMO 2.0 update, the community passed proposals to reduce inflation and extend the release schedule. The **** proposal reduces the inflation rate by 50%, so the current weekly OSMO release is approximately 1.28 million. The distribution ratio is Staking: 50% Liquidity Pool Reward: 20% Community Pool: 5% Developer Reward: 25%.

Data Sources:https://osmosis.zone/blog/unveiling-osmo-2-0

According to data from Coingecko, the current OSMO token price is $0.29, reaching an all-time low and still continuing to fall. The circulating market capitalization is approximately US$180 million, and FDV is approximately US$290 million.

The number of OSMO tokens released per day at current prices is approximately $53,000, or approximately $19.43 million per year.

Data Sources:https://www.coingecko.com/

Based on the current monthly agreement income of US$500,000, the annual income is about US$6 million, 18,000 / 600 = 30 times;

6. Comprehensive analysis

Based on the above, Osmosis has become the network center and liquidity center of the Cosmos ecosystem, which will form a very powerful network effect.

For example, in the upcoming dYdX Chain, if you want to cross-chain USDC from Ethereum or Arbitrum to dYdX Chain, the official plan needs to cross-chain to osmosis through Axelar, and then exchange it for the native Noble version of USDC to recharge to dYdX Chain. This will give Osmosis brings greater liquidity.

At the same time, the latest projects based on the Cosmos SDK will conduct airdrops for OSMO pledgers, such as the recent Celesita, which will further strengthen its monopoly position. As more projects are built using the Cosmos SDK in the future, the exchange of their native tokens will need to be carried out through other DEX protocols. Osmosis has the largest liquidity and strongest network connectivity, and will inevitably become the first choice of the project side, and this This further enhances its network effect.

It can be seen that the success of Osmosis is closely related to the prosperity of Cosmos, and as the Cosmos ecosystem develops, Osmosis will capture a large amount of transaction value and become the DeFi center of the Cosmos ecosystem.

But on the other hand, if the Cosmos ecosystem fails to develop well and instead fails in competition with Layer 2 or other public chains such as Solana, it will cause Osmosis to fall into crisis. We have seen that Canto, which is built based on the Cosmos SDK, recently announced that it will be converted to Layer 2. The rapid development of Base chain has squeezed the development of Cosmos, but there are also upcoming application chains such as dYdX Chain and celestia based on the Cosmos SDK. .

If after the dydx v4 version is migrated, its transaction volume and user number do not increase, or even decline, it may mean that the narrative of the application chain is not valid, which will have a negative impact on other projects that are waiting to see, leading to further Cosmos ecology. shrink.

Of course, Osmosis will also face competition from other competitors within the Cosmos ecosystem, such as Kujira, Crescent, and Astroport.

Therefore, if changes in the following indicators are observed, it means that the advantages of Osmosis are being lost:

The development of dYdX Chain is not as expected, and the migration process encounters huge resistance;
The number of chains connected through IBC across the Cosmos ecosystem is decreasing;
The network status of Osmosis in IBC decreases (for example, the number of chains connected to Osmosis is decreasing, while the number of connections to chains of other DEXs is increasing);
Other network activity indicators, such as the decline in the number of native stablecoins, the decline in daily transaction volume, etc.

On the contrary, if the above indicators are observed to increase, it means that Osmosiss network position is increasing.

The development of the Cosmos ecosystem also involves competition between sovereign application chains and Layer 2, which will also be an important direction for future blockchain development. The author believes that the current scalability of Layer 2 is still unable to meet the needs of large-scale users. Once the market improves and on-chain activities flourish, Layer 2 will still face the problems of congestion and high handling fees. At the same time, Layer 2 cannot completely solve all problems. Problem, some large-scale projects still require the form of a sovereign chain to achieve specific needs. This can be seen from the migration of dydx and MakerDaos consideration of using the Solana fork to build the backend. Therefore, in the future, there will still be an era in which Layer 2 and sovereign application chains coexist, with the Ethereum ecosystem as the main one and other ecosystems as supplements.