Original - Odaily

Author - Loopy

OKX Ouyi market shows that this morning, stimulated by the good news that Bitcoin ETF officially entered the approval window period, Bitcoin continued to rise, and finally broke through the US$38,000 mark at 23:00 in the evening, setting the highest level since May 22, 2022 . Afterwards, Bitcoin quickly fell back by US$2,500, falling to US$35,500. It is currently trading at US$36,300, a 24-hour increase of 2.7%.

What’s interesting is that at the same time last year, after CZ announced a “rescue” for FTX, the crypto market fluctuated violently, with short-term surges and plummets. Today, one year later, the market once again fluctuated widely by US$2,500, with futures liquidation exceeding 4 100 million US dollars, which can be regarded as an alternative commemoration of the collapse of FTX.

BTC rises and falls by $2,500 in one day, with ETH far ahead

In the early morning of November 9, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote that the Bitcoin ETF has officially entered the approval window. From November 9 to November 17, the SEC can theoretically approve any of the 12 existing spot Bitcoin ETF applications during this time. Of course, the SEC can also reject the application, but the market is generally optimistic about the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF. “I released new research today. We continue to believe there is a 90% chance of approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF application by January 10th.”

Perhaps influenced by this positive expectation, Bitcoins price trend surged today, breaking through three integer marks of US$36,000, US$37,000, and US$38,000. However, after 11 oclock in the evening, the upward momentum weakened. In just over an hour, the price of Bitcoin fell rapidly, plummeting by US$2,500 to US$35,500, almost erasing all todays gains. Currently, Bitcoin is temporarily trading at 36,300 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 2.7%.

In terms of other mainstream currencies, ETH strongly broke through the US$2,000 mark this evening, reaching a maximum of US$2,050, and was temporarily quoted at US$2,010, with a 24-hour increase of 6%. On the news, ETHs strong performance is mainly affected by BlackRock - disclosure documents show that BlackRock registered the Ethereum Trust in Delaware, and the registered entity is called ISHARES ETHEREUM TRUST. Perhaps due to the stimulation of good news, or driven by the strong increase in the big pie, the long-dormant two pie finally began to rise. And when the market is already facing a decline, ETHs anti-fall performance is even better.

In addition, the ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded quickly after falling to 0.051 today, and is now back to 0.0558. If you look at the larger level, you can see that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has bottomed out, but whether it can stand firm and continue to rise is still worth waiting to see.

In addition, many mainstream currencies have continued to rise recently. The top ten currencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) have all increased by more than 10% in the past week, with ADA (+18%) and Solana (+12%) ranking among the top in terms of weekly gains. Among the top 50 currencies by market capitalization, KAS (+57.7%), OKB (+35.4%) and LINK (+31.7%) rank among the top three weekly gainers.

Affected by the upward trend of the overall market, the current total crypto market value has risen to US$142.3 million, a 24-hour increase of 2.5%; since the beginning of the year, the total crypto market value has increased by US$595 billion, a cumulative increase of 71.8%. Crypto users trading enthusiasm has increased significantly recently. Todays panic and greed index reached 74 on November 6, continuing to hit a new high since November 2021; todays panic and greed index was 69, and the degree of greed dropped from yesterday.

In terms of derivatives trading,Coinglass dataIt shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated positions of US$473 million, including long orders of US$208 million and short orders of US$266 million. A total of 143,369 people have become victims of liquidation.

In addition, according to Coinglass platform data, the current open interest in Bitcoin on the entire network is US$16.56 billion, with a 24 H increase of 0.36%. Among them, CME ranked first with a holding of US$4.05 billion, surpassing Binance for the first time, with an increase of 4.2% in 24 H; Binance’s holdings were US$3.97 billion, with a decrease of 0.71% in 24 H; Bybit’s holdings ranked third with a holding of US$2.605 billion, with a 24 H increase of 4.2%. H dropped by 5.2%.

Currently, the net asset value discount rate of Grayscale GBTC has dropped from 49% at the beginning of the year to 13.04%; the net asset value discount rate of Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund (ETHE) has dropped from 59.3% at the beginning of the year to 18.65%. currentGrayscale FundThe total holdings are 28.44 billion U.S. dollars, and the trust discounts of other mainstream currencies have also narrowed, as follows: ETC (-42.9%), LTC (-1.56%), BCH (-3.7%), ZEC (-11.6%); the remaining grayscale Product premiums have expanded, namely: XLM (110.8%), MANA (66.5%), ZEN (4.5%), Solana (630.8%), LPT (35.5%), BAT (2.8%), LINK (223.8%) and FIL (1016.6%).

In addition, Etherscan data shows that the regular value of Ethereum Gas briefly rose to 194 gwei tonight, and the fee for a Uniswap Swap is approximately $135.

In addition, as the market surged, MicroStrategy, which held the largest Bitcoin position, had an floating profit of more than 1.2 billion US dollars. Its position cost price was 29586 USDT, and it held a total of 158,400 Bitcoins. It had a floating profit based on the current price of Bitcoin of 37500 USDT. $1.25 billion. At the opening of trading this evening, MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price rose by more than 5.6%; Coinbases stock price hit $95 and is currently at $94.28, up 7% since the opening of trading today.

How will the market go in the future?

After Bitcoin’s sharp rise and fall, where will it go next? Can it hit the $40,000 mark?

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said, “According to SEC insiders, the SEC will approve a Bitcoin spot ETF before Thanksgiving,” tweeting that although this is within the realm of possibility (consistent with predictions that many will be approved at the same time) ), but the authenticity of its source cannot be confirmed.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart pointed out that even if the SEC approves a spot Bitcoin ETF, the actual launch of the Bitcoin ETF will still be a month away.

Looking to the future, the approval of spot ETFs may promote further growth in the value of Bitcoin, especially when the halving event occurs in late April 2024. If we look at it from the perspective of looking for a sword, we will usher in a historic bull market. cycle.

JPMorgan analysts said: The cryptocurrency rally appears to be overdone. They are cautious about the future of the crypto market.

Analysts point to two main factors that appear to have contributed to the cryptocurrency’s rise over the past month. The first major factor is the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., which could bring new money into the cryptocurrency market, and such approval has the potential to be seen as a win for the crypto industry and a defeat for the SEC. The second major factor is the SEC’s failure in the Ripple and Grayscale legal cases, which it is thought could lead to a more lenient approach by the SEC in the future.

But JPMorgan analysts said it remains uncertain whether cryptocurrency regulations will be relaxed in the future. Analysts said: “Given the extent to which the cryptocurrency industry is unregulated, it is unclear whether the degree of regulatory tightening in the industry will be significantly reduced. U.S. cryptocurrency industry regulations are still pending, and we do not believe that U.S. legislators will do so due to the above two cases. legal cases, especially with the FTX fraud still fresh in our minds.

Nowadays, market expectations for the adoption of ETFs are getting stronger. Is the current decline a correction in the rise, or the end of the rise? Has a new bull market cycle begun?

Odaily would like to remind everyone that investment is risky and should be treated with caution.