Original author: Enrique @eherrerosj

Original translation: Qianwen, ChainCatcher 

Based on over 140 million cryptocurrency submissions, we draw the following conclusions:

As of June 1st, 23, there are 21,300 active developers per month:

• Decreased by 22% compared to June 22 (1 year ago).

• Increased by 25% compared to June 21 (2 years ago).

• Increased by 92% compared to June 20 (3 years ago).

Key Highlights

• The departing developers are mainly newcomers to the cryptocurrency field (less than 12 months in the field) and developers who contribute less than 20% of the submissions.

• In contrast, developers who have been working in the cryptocurrency field for more than 12 months continue to contribute over 80% of the submissions.

• The inflow of new developers has slowed since the market peak.

Decrease in the Number of Developers Exploring Cryptocurrency

We divide the monthly active developers by comparing the first and last submission dates:

• New developers: developers who have been working in cryptocurrency for less than 1 year

• Emerging developers: developers who have been working in cryptocurrency for 1-2 years

• Seasoned developers: developers who have been working in cryptocurrency for more than 2 years

The number of new developers is growing, while the number of mature developers remains stable. The decrease in monthly active developers last year was mainly due to newcomers.

From June 22 to June 23:

• The number of new developers decreased by 48% (7730 developers)

• The number of emerging developers increased by 44% (1650 developers)

• The number of mature developers increased by 2% (150 developers)

Reasons for the decrease in the number of newcomers

In terms of the number of new developers per month, in May 23, there were 2,900 new developers entering the cryptocurrency field:

• Compared to February 23 (3 months ago), it decreased by 20%.

• Compared to November 22 (6 months ago), it decreased by 42%.

• Compared to May 22 (12 months ago), it decreased by 50%.

• Compared to November 21, it increased by 45% (from the market peak).

New developers who joined in 2023 did not stay in the field for long.

The following chart shows how long most new developers stay in the cryptocurrency field starting from January 21 (retention rate <20%):

• 2021: 6-10 months

• 2022: 3-6 months

• 2023 (so far): 3-4 months

Overall, the retention rate in 2023 remains stable. However, if we look at the data starting from 2015, we find that developers who joined during bear markets tend to leave faster. In 2023, new developers left faster compared to 2022 or 2021, which is a typical phenomenon during bear markets.

The market cycle is the reason why newcomers, emerging, and mature cryptocurrency developers dominate in different periods of the market.

The periods when newcomers dominate during market peaks:

• The 6 months following the market peak in January 2018 (June 2018)

• The 7 months following the market peak in November 2021 (June 2022): accounting for 70% of the dominance

Once in a bear market, developers who have been working in the cryptocurrency field for over a year (emerging and mature developers) take the lead, mainly during the following periods:

• The 24 months following the market peak in January 2018 (January 2020): accounting for 60% of the dominance

• The 18 months following the ATH in November 2021 (June 2023): accounting for 60% of the dominance

Although the number of active developers per month has declined overall, the departing developers do not play a critical role.

If a developer does not contribute within two months, we consider them "leaving" the cryptocurrency field. Developers who stopped contributing after March 2023 accounted for less than 20% of the submission volume.

Developers who contributed code in April and May of the 23rd year exhibited the following characteristics:

• Contributed the majority of the code

• More active days

• Engaged in cryptocurrency for a longer period of time

Firstly, developers who recently made contributions in April and May accounted for the majority of code commits (over 80%).

Secondly, developers who made contributions in April and May had longer active cycles.

From the median values:

• Continuing developers: 13 weeks active

• Departed developers: 2 weeks active

Thirdly, developers who made contributions in April and May had been engaged in cryptocurrency for a longer period of time.

Number of days (median values) developers have been engaged in cryptocurrency:

• Continuing developers: 19 weeks

• Departed developers: 8 weeks

Ecosystem Dynamics

Monthly ecosystem growth rates (from June of the 22nd year to June of the 23rd year) are as follows:

• Osmosis: +56%

• Sui: +159%

• Aptos: +90%

• Ton: +102%

• Optimism: +27%

• Aztec Protocol: +267%

Summary

• The number of monthly active developers decreased by 22% compared to the previous year.

• The leaving developers are newcomers in the cryptocurrency field, responsible for less than 20% of the contributions.

• Developers who have been working in the cryptocurrency field for more than 12 months will continue to contribute, accounting for over 80% of the total submissions.

• The number of developers for Osmosis, Sui, Aptos, Ton, Optimism, and Aztec Protocol has increased compared to the previous year.