Market View:

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Monetary liquidity is improving. The U.S. CPI data in February was 6%, which was in line with expectations, and the industrial PPI unexpectedly fell in February, indicating that the retail CPI in March was better, and inflationary pressure was greatly reduced. Several banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, went bankrupt, and the Fed found itself needing to prioritize financial stability over inflation. The market is betting on a 75% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and a 25% probability that it will not raise interest rates. In the second half of the year, interest rates may be cut early. This confirms past market bottoms and it is only a matter of time before new liquidity starts to spill over into the crypto market.

2. The whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

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1. 2. The whole market

2. The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

3. LQTY: It is a copycat version of Makerdao, but it only supports ETH as the coinage collateral of the stablecoin LUSD. It is one of the few unaffected decentralized stablecoins in this stablecoin USDC unanchoring event.

3. BTC market

3.1 Data on the chain

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3. BTC market

More and more BTC is held by smaller retail investors. Holdings of less than 10 BTC are 2.3 times more than 22 years. The holdings of giant whales, miners, and exchanges experienced the largest contraction. The group of whales with more than 1,000 BTC currently holds 6.64 million BTC, which is equivalent to 34% of the circulating supply.

3.2 Futures Quotes

Funding is not yet optimistic. Due to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States, mainstream stablecoins such as USDC and DAI were de-anchored, and BUSD was gradually withdrawn due to US supervision. The market share of unaffected TUSD and USDT increased rapidly. Among them, TUSD is more friendly to European users, and its market value has increased by 115% in the past month, becoming the main substitute of BUSD.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1 and holders were overall in the red. The current indicator is 0.34, out of the green bottom-buying range.

3.2 Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: This week, the rate has changed from negative to positive and is at a normal level. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.

BTC has risen sharply this week, breaking through the key resistance level of 25200 since June last year, and may enter a weekly level rise. On the macro front, the Fed's policy has changed from hawk to dove, and a rate cut in the second half of the year is a high probability event. However, once the U.S. falls into a recession, the market will still be caught in a daunting short-term correction. We have seen recent market turmoil, but it is at moments like this that we are reminded why BTC was born in the 2008 crisis.

market data:

market data:

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2. TVL ratio of each public chain

3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

TVL picked up slightly this week, up ~2b. However, Ethereum and the mainstream public chains of layer 2 are still falling. According to the data of the past seven days, among the Layer 2 public chains, Polygon fell by 4.04%, Arbitrum fell by 5.12%, Optimism fell by 1.14%, and Avalanche fell by 14.79%. Among them, looking at the situation in the past day, Arbitrum rebounded by 5.96% due to the news of the airdrop.

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3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

3.1 ETH lock-up volume

3.2 BSC lock-up volume

3.3 Tron lock-up volume

3.5 Polygon Lockup Amount

3.6 Arbitrum lock-up volume

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4. History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $0.6, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $5.54, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $2.15. In recent weeks, the gas fee has remained in the bottom range, and the mobilization of market activity still lacks hot spots. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap and Blur occupy the top positions.

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5. Changes in NFT market data

5.1 Market value of NFT index:

5.3 Proportion of NFT market transactions:

This week, Blur's popularity surpassed Opensea's in an all-round way, and it can occupy ~70% of the market in terms of volume. There is no obvious hotspot in NFT market transactions this week, but from the past seven days, the floor prices of blue-chip projects are all falling, Cryptopunck fell by 15%, BAYC’s floor prices fell by 1.6%, MAYC fell by 5.94%, Doodles and Moonbirds both fell more than up to 30%. At the same time, it can be seen that the number of NFT buyers has pulled back after the sharp rise last week, but it is still at a relatively high level. Although the number of buyers entering the market has increased significantly in the past two weeks, it still has not returned to the high point at the end of February in the long run.

Disclaimer: All Foresight Ventures articles are not intended as investment advice. Investment is risky, please assess your personal risk tolerance and make investment decisions prudently.