Profit in the NFT market is often related to many factors. When you consider whether to buy a 10K project, in addition to the project itself, transaction behavior, transaction timing, and transaction amount are all crucial. Through the indicators of NFTGo.io and some famous NFTs as examples, we will explore the following questions:

trader

• Why care about holder distribution?

transaction curve

• What is the market hype and heat curve like?

Trading timing

• transaction cost

transaction cost

• How many times is the difference between the top 10 transaction costs and the floor price?

trading profit

• Looking at the blue-chip projects, which ones are the most profitable on average?

trader

Distribution of holdings

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frankfrank holding quantity distribution; data source NFTGo.io

number of independent holders

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The number of Unique Holders of Azuki is 5462 bits; data source NFTGo.io

transaction curve

Before formally discussing the timing, we can divide the price development stage of most projects into four parts, namely the incubation period/explosion period, the frenzy period, the cooling-off period/precipitation period, and the development period. Each stage has representative events , we only enumerated a part of them in the figure above.

Most of the project parties have almost skipped the first stage and reached the peak through a series of methods such as creating topics, whitelisting before the public sale, closed-door hunger marketing in the Discord community, holding daily community activities, and cooperating with Raffle for popular projects. Some projects will fit some part of this curve. The rate of growth in the first phase depends on many factors, including:

The current total market trading volume environment, the interaction popularity of Discord community members in channels and voices, the interaction popularity of official Twitter non-partner content, and the aboriginal Crypto Native index of the project party, which is divided into past achievements of painters and community MODS Past experience, AMA frequency and speaker quality, roadmap innovation and novelty, the upper limit of imagination, the effect of opening pictures, celebrities bringing goods, etc., but after the hype reaches its peak, Flipper and Paperhand will be sold, short-term holders Will also choose to sell, this is a normal phenomenon. After the hype phase fades away, it is time for the consensus between the project party and the community to emerge. How to make the value curve grow positively again will test the ability of the project party and the implementation of future roadmap planning.

Trading timing

Market heat = buy sell signal?

Data source NFTGo.io

Data source NFTGo.io

In addition to market heat, the current ratio of buyers and sellers can also guide the timing of transactions. In foreign exchange and stock markets, we often see the Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), which has always been one of the most important indicators for real-time trading.

first level title

Data source NFTGo.io

best time to leave

Holding period distribution

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Statistical chart of the holding period distribution of NFT projects; data source: NFTGo.io

The data shows that, except for the mfers project, other projects with a life cycle of more than five months have a large proportion of long-term holders (that is, the holding time is between three months and one year). Usually, after minting NFT, due to FOMO sentiment in the market coupled with project development, the floor price of the secondary market for high-quality projects will be much higher than the initial minting price, which may prompt a large number of early buyers to sell the minted NFT, you can buy other NFTs after you have secured your pocket. In the past three months, the NFT market has actually experienced great fluctuations, from the peak at the end of January to the gradual ease, but diamond hands will occupy a certain proportion of good projects.

ROI distribution based on holding period

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Summary chart of average return on investment (ROI) based on holding period; data source: NFTGo.io

URP distribution based on holding period

We use the Unrealized Profits (URP) indicator to compare the profit earned by minter from selling NFT and the profit earned by holders holding NFT for a period of time. (*Unrealized profit = maximum (average price, floor price) - purchase price)

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Holder average unrealized profit (URP) statistical chart based on the holding period; data source: NFTGo.io

transaction cost

transaction cost

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Floor price VS average buying price; data source: NFTGo.io

trading profit

Primary and secondary market returns

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Statistical chart of investment return shares of Minter and Trader among blue-chip projects; data source: NFTGo.io

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ROI ranking

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Profit leaderboard of six NFT Collections based on average ROI

epilogue

epilogue

Many people will feel that the biggest profit in the NFT market seems to have been reaped by early buyers of blue chip stocks. Back then, everyone could buy a Punk for less than $100. Early casting of NFT projects with good development prospects is helpful for investment, but at the same time, risk costs must be borne. Only by withstanding certain risks can a higher-than-average return on investment be obtained. But no matter which strategy is adopted, the timing of the transaction is very important. In addition to the above points, transaction features, such asChoice of rarityIt also needs to be included. If you want to maintain high liquidity, you can choose to hold more NFTs near the floor price, and its response to growth will be faster.

At present, the NFT market is still driven by speculation and expectations. You can choose to follow the meme trend, or choose the style you like. The NFT market is constantly developing, but it may take time to truly bring digital products with intrinsic value. According to the data of NFTGo, there is not only one way and one opportunity to invest in NFT, but there are many paths to choose from according to your risk preference.