Original author:0xTodd

Original source:Original author:

0xTodd's Ponzi Methodology

From the first time I played Fomo3D in 2018 to last week, I may have played hundreds of Ponzi. I have a little bit of experience, and I would like to share it with you. It is also a different kind of year-end summary.

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What's the difference between Ponzi and real items?

1. Ponzi and real items are sometimes just numerical differences.

For example, MakerDAO and Spell have a similar mechanism, they both mortgage a certain currency to generate a stable currency. But the main collaterals of the former are ETH and WBTC, while the latter are UST and WMEMO (an OHM Fork).

For another example, some L1s can provide about 5% staking rewards, provided that you complete the bookkeeping tasks of the network; and some DeFi 6.9 provide 50,000% staking opportunities, and your task is to ensure that you do not sell them.

2. Ponzi and real projects sometimes have similar values, but the mechanism is completely different. The key depends on who pays the bill.

For example, in the loan agreement of AAVE or Venus, the USDT-based APR can sometimes reach 10%+. The source of interest is that someone is willing to borrow at 10%+ and there is sufficient collateral.

A counterexample is Anchor, the largest lender on Terra, which offers (almost) a fixed rate of 20% and only serves $UST. But when you look at the audience, you have no idea who provided the 20%. At this time, you have to be very vigilant.

3. Ponzi and real items have the opportunity to convert.

For example Sushi, until the first chef leaves office, the non-Sushi LP pool can reach 2,000%+, which is almost Ponzi. Since the second chef 0xMaki took office, Sushi has gradually become on the right track and has become an important opponent of Uni.

4. Is this transition common?

Unusual. Most scammers just do the next scam.

——For those who have made fast money, it is difficult for them to do things down-to-earth to make slow money.

Unless someone else does it, like Sushiswap, or like Doge. Doge's development team didn't want to do a good job, and developed Doge even just to laugh at Bitcoin, but it was completely different after switching to Elon Musk.

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What is the difference between Ponzi and community?

5. Normal items can add some Ponzi elements.

For example, token distribution can be done in some aggressive ways. For example, Yearn and Curve use some Ponzi-biased models to exaggerate the APR during mining, but their strong cash flow income determines that they are not Ponzi.

For example, for $People, everyone’s cost is 1 ETH = 1 million People. It’s hard for anyone to get inside information or free chips. This kind of thing will be like a community.

Another example is a Markerplace that “subverts Opensea”. Everyone earns tokens by frantically swiping volume. It seems that the sale is fair and the future is promising. However, everyone’s ETH fees are real gold and silver, but they all flow into the hands of institutions and teams with extremely low costs.

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Can investing in Ponzi make money?

7. Which one earns more from investing in non-Ponzi or Ponzi?

Good projects may fall more or rise more slowly than Ponzi in a certain range, but Ponzi will definitely underperform good projects in the long run, because Ponzi only has one ending: zero. So don't Fomo, don't attack people who don't vote for Ponzi, and don't say NGMI to him.

8. You only vote for non-Ponzi, why don’t you earn more money than I vote for Ponzi, so you are stupid.

The rise of the project does not mean that the project is no longer Ponzi, the rise only means that funds are pouring in. At the same time, non-Ponzi ≠ good projects. Most of the traditional entrepreneurial projects fail, but good projects must be hundreds of times and thousands of times. I don't make as much money as you do, it just means I'm not good at picking non-Ponzi's, bad luck or not long enough.

9. You can make money during the process from small Ponzi to big Ponzi. But floating profit is hard to pocket, and if you run at the wrong time, you will be doomed.

For example, it took 60 years for a certain game of Gamefi to pay back its capital.

Has anyone made it? Yes, not many.

Has anyone ever floated? Yes, many.

For most people, from floating profit to impermanent floating loss, and then to permanent loss.

Another example is Luna. From the bottom up to now, many people are in the midst of floating profit. How will it develop in the future? (I'm so tired, I've been scolded all the time, I don't want to comment on it today)

10. In the process from the big Ponzi to the real landing, you can make money, and you need real judgment.

For example, Filecoin or AR is currently in the process. If the value created by these two networks is greater than the cost it pays, then it is a success. If it loses to Amazon Cloud or even Alibaba Cloud in the end, then I am sorry to win the king or lose the bandit.

This requires DYOR, really put a lot of energy into research.

11. Participating in Ponzi sooner or later is very important, and meaningful things will not be so important.

Participating in Ponzi sooner or later can directly affect whether you make money, but meaningful things often do not, or the impact is not so exaggerated.

For example, BNB, the average cost in the last year is about 400 US dollars, and Binance has been empowering it, so you will not have a particularly large wealth gap when you buy it a few months apart.

The counterexample is OHM, you buy at $100, it rises to $500, and the amount increases by 10x, a total of 50x; but if you buy at $500, it rises to $1,000, the amount doubles, the peak floating profit is only 4x, and now the floating loss . The difference between the two may only be 3 weeks. Those who enter later will suffer more, and the risk level is completely different.

12. Should I participate in Ponzi?

IQ 50 or IQ 200 is fine, the former is often enough to get in early, while the latter knows when to run. IQ 90-IQ 130 is not recommended to participate, because this thing is not cost-effective, and the winning rate is low, so don't be the last stick.

13. I don't think I'm IQ 50 or IQ 200, I must get a piece of the Ponzi field, what should I do?

My fren, when most Ponzi pushes in front of most people, it is a big late game. At this time, shorting with small funds may be an option.

The most important thing is that it has now entered a bear market.

14. What kind of risk should I bear in shorting Ponzi?

- Ponzi has the potential to turn into a real meaningful project through real accumulation, you have to be able to detect this in time.

- Will be cursed by Ponzi supporters. This is the reason why cutting off people's wealth is like killing their parents. But I think that traitors and traitors are not independent, and we must always do the right thing.

- It is possible to be liquidated several times, please do not spend a lot of money.

- Don't wait for it to return to zero before you hit the dog in the water. It will be too late at that time. Be careful of cheating and letting you blow up your position.

15. I expose or point out that a project is suspected to be Ponzi, is that okay?