Odaily News On-chain analyst @arndxt_xo wrote that Bitcoin is currently in a "non-correlated window period" similar to February 2025, with prices hovering in the 100-108K range. BTC price trends are not yet synchronized with macro liquidity, but historical data shows that the direction of changes in the M2 money supply of major central banks around the world leads BTC performance in 80% of cases.
The year-on-year growth rate of M2 has turned from negative to positive. In addition, many Fed officials have hinted that interest rates will be cut as early as July. The FOMC dot chart also supports a rate cut this year. In terms of technical structure, BTC has confirmed a golden cross, and the weekly trend is still there; if it breaks through 108K, it is expected to rise to 133K. If liquidity continues to improve and policy changes are ushered in, Q4 may become a key window for BTC's upward momentum.