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Agency: Trump's tariffs could increase the core PCE index by 2.0%
2025-04-08 06:16:50

Odaily News Saira Malik, head of Nuveen Equities and Fixed Income, said the overall impact of tariffs announced so far this year on U.S. real GDP growth is likely to be around negative 1.7%. She said in a report that tariffs will also increase core PCE by 2.0% this year, a barometer of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve. Its latest reading in February was 2.8%. Because the tariffs announced so far have been higher than expected, Nuveen believes the risks are tilted toward further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. "Our probability-weighted guidance has increased from four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and 2026 to 6.6 rate cuts, while our fair value assessment of the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 4.5% to 4.0%," she said. (Jinshi)