Odaily News Although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear", a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025. Crypto researcher Mark Quant analyzed the Bitcoin price using Monte Carlo simulation and provided a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates that the average final price of Bitcoin by the end of September 2025 is $258,445. However, from a broader perspective, the Bitcoin price is expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (i.e., the 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (95th percentile return).
However, Monte Carlo models rely heavily on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with a constant drift parameter. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. In essence, Monte Carlo analysis is like "rolling the dice" with uncertainty. Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the Global Liquidity Index, which suggests that the total market capitalization could reach a new high of more than $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. (Cointelegrph)