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Economist El-Erian: Markets exaggerate the magnitude of the Fed's 100 basis point rate cut
2024-08-22 16:21:38
Odaily News Traders are currently expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian said they have overstated the likelihood of a big Fed rate cut before the end of the year: "It seems to me that the market has priced in so many rate cuts now, which is problematic." In recent days, traders have consolidated bets in the swaps market that the Fed will cut interest rates by up to 100 basis points before the end of the year, with a possible 25 basis point or even 50 basis point cut in September. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that several officials believed a rate cut was possible next month, while the latest employment data showed that job growth was far less strong than previously reported, further indicating that a rate cut is almost a done deal. According to El-Erian, the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points before the end of the year. He said: "There is a view that to achieve a soft landing through a hard landing policy, the two need to be reconciled in some way. The market will make adjustments one day. (Jinshi)