Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 90.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 9.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 57.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.5%.