Arthur Hayes: Bank of Japan's selling of US debt triggers speculation on US dollar liquidity, and cryptocurrencies are expected to usher in a new round of bull market
2024-06-21 00:47:09
Odaily News Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzed in his personal blog that Japan's fifth largest bank, Norinchukin Bank, recently announced that it would sell US$63 billion worth of US and European bonds. This indicates that other Japanese banks may follow suit and sell up to US$450 billion in US bonds in total. Hayes pointed out that the reason why Japanese banks sold US bonds in large quantities is that the US-Japan interest rate differential has widened sharply, resulting in a sharp increase in the foreign exchange hedging cost of holding US bonds, and holding these bonds has begun to lose money. In the election year, US Treasury Secretary Yellen is likely to ask the Bank of Japan to absorb these sold bonds through the Federal Reserve's FIMA repurchase tool to avoid a sharp rise in US bond yields and trigger financial market turmoil. Hayes believes that if the Federal Reserve prints money on a large scale to buy back the US bonds sold by Japan, it will bring a new round of US dollar liquidity to the cryptocurrency market and boost a new round of cryptocurrency bull market. Hayes said that in order to maintain the current US dollar-based financial system, the supply of US dollars must increase, which will undoubtedly push up the prices of crypto assets including Bitcoin.
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